{"locations":[{"code":"DZA","name":"Algeria","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/DZA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.32 in 1950 → 2.77 in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 7.71 in 1967; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 1999: +0.01 → −0.23 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.324,"last":2.766,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":7.712},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0124,"slope_after":-0.234},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.234,"slope_after":0.0218}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 456k in 1950 → 906k in 2023 (+99%). Peak: 1.04M in 2017; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 1999: +11k → −17.1k → +19.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":456.4,"last":906,"peak":{"year":2017,"value":1043},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":11,"slope_after":-17.1},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-17.1,"slope_after":19.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 77.4% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 18.2% → 47.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":77.4178,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":18.2,"end":47.6911}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 31.3% in 1960 → 75.8% in 2025 (+44 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1988, above 75% since 2024. The trend broke around 1979: change sped up (+0.43 → +0.83 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":31.3413,"last":75.8187,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1988,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":0.425,"slope_after":0.83}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 11,729 PPP dollars in 1990 → 15,883 PPP dollars in 2025 (+35%). Low: 10,414 PPP dollars in 1994; +53% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2008: −202 → +345 → +54 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":11728.5457,"last":15882.7139,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":10414.0348},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-202,"slope_after":345},{"year":2008,"slope_before":345,"slope_after":53.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 6.04 → 3.49. Over the same years: births 840k → 699k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 47.9% → 56%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,588 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":6.035,"end":3.487,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":839.5,"end":699.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.0018},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":47.9115,"end":56.0131},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":10588.4434}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.00 → 2.77; births 981k → 906k; internet 22.5% → 76.2%; urban share 68.9% → 74.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 14,778 PPP dollars → 15,159 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.997,"end":2.766,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":980.5,"end":906},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.5,"end":76.1976},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.9464,"end":74.7328},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14778.1914,"end":15159.3242}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.71). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.557,"r_changes":0.711,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.006,"r_changes":-0.027,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.935,"r_changes":-0.133,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.37); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.22).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.372,"r_changes":0.217,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +41%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":44.88},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":44.88},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.08,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":46.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.166,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":40.47},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.163,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":40.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.163,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":40.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.962,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":55.07},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.545,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":19.55},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.618,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":16.21},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.65,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":14.81},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.767,"actual":2.766,"gap_pct":-0.04}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":40.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.77) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.766,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.77, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.766,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.00 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−36% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.766},"values":{"2050":1.999,"2100":1.776},"low_2100":1.276}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +40%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":746.366,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":37.4},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":697.563,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":47.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":690.695,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":48.47},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":732.792,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":39.94},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":731.377,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":40.21},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":731.309,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":40.23},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":665.727,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":54.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":900.33,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":13.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":887.943,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":15.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":900.002,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":13.94},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":895.418,"actual":906,"gap_pct":1.18}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":39.94,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (906k) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":906,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (906k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":906,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 859k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 598k (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 242k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":906},"values":{"2050":859.2,"2100":598},"low_2100":241.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=DZA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}