{"locations":[{"code":"DOM","name":"Dominican Republic","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/DOM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.51 in 1950 → 2.24 in 2023 (−70%). The trend broke around 1962 and 1985: 0 → −0.18 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.507,"last":2.243,"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":-0.00378,"slope_after":-0.177},{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.177,"slope_after":-0.0365}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 126k in 1950 → 203k in 2023 (+61%). The trend broke around 1959 and 1991: +4.65k → +1.57k → −0.31k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":126.3,"last":203.2,"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":4.65,"slope_after":1.57},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.57,"slope_after":-0.315}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 91% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2015, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 49.6% → 79.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":91.0022,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":49.58,"end":79.7155}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 30.2% in 1960 → 72.5% in 2025 (+42 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1979. The trend broke around 2015: direction reversed (+0.72 → −0.23 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":30.179,"last":72.5177,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1979,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2015,"slope_before":0.716,"slope_after":-0.233}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,328 PPP dollars in 1990 → 24,543 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.3). The trend broke around 2009: change sped up (+359 → +676 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":7327.7267,"last":24543.3422,"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":359,"slope_after":676}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 6.76 → 4.84. Over the same years: births 182k → 197k; urban share 37.1% → 48.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":6.755,"end":4.842,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":181.6,"end":196.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":37.0566,"end":48.6341},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.47 → 2.24; births 216k → 203k; internet 45.9% → 86.1%; urban share 74.2% → 72.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 16,055 PPP dollars → 23,282 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.474,"end":2.243,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":215.9,"end":203.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.9,"end":86.1269},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":74.2251,"end":72.3578},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16054.7677,"end":23282.4895}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.903,"r_changes":0.54,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.32). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.834,"r_changes":0.322,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.952,"r_changes":-0.05,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.904,"r_changes":-0.051,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.197,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":8.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.29,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":4.37},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.289,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.288,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":4.46},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.51,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":-4.78},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.323,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":2.89},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.332,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":2.49},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.348,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":1.79},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.377,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":0.55},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.378,"actual":2.3901,"gap_pct":0.51},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.212,"actual":2.243,"gap_pct":1.4}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":2.49,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.24) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.243,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (2.24) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.243,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.87 (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.73 (−23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.23.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.243},"values":{"2050":1.865,"2100":1.729},"low_2100":1.229}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +1.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":181.667,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":17.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":191.799,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":10.97},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":191.121,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":11.36},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":201.746,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":5.5},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":230.316,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":-7.59},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":214.045,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":-0.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":207.623,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":2.51},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":211.058,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":0.84},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":212.511,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":0.15},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":212.694,"actual":212.84,"gap_pct":0.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":200.635,"actual":203.2,"gap_pct":1.28}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":1.28,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (203k) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":203.2,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (203k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":203.2,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 166k (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 108k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 38.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":203.2},"values":{"2050":165.9,"2100":108},"low_2100":38.13}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=DOM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}