{"locations":[{"code":"DMA","name":"Dominica","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/DMA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.24 in 1950 → 1.48 in 2023 (−72%). Peak: 6.18 in 1959; the latest value is 76% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2003, below 1.5 since 2020. The trend broke around 1965 and 1976: +0.05 → −0.26 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.236,"last":1.484,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":6.183},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2003,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0545,"slope_after":-0.263},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.263,"slope_after":-0.0439}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.78k in 1950 → 0.74k in 2023 (−58%). Peak: 2.52k in 1961; the latest value is 71% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: +0.08k → −0.05k → −0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.778,"last":0.738,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":2.518},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0755,"slope_after":-0.052},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.052,"slope_after":-0.0252}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2000–2005: 8.8% → 38.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":82.0469,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2000,"to":2005,"start":8.8148,"end":38.5436}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 37.9% in 1960 → 74% in 2025 (+36 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1983. The trend broke around 1976 and 1989: +0.19 → +1.7 → +0.29 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":37.854,"last":73.9862,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1983,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.193,"slope_after":1.7},{"year":1989,"slope_before":1.7,"slope_after":0.289}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 11,312 PPP dollars in 1990 → 19,409 PPP dollars in 2025 (+72%). The trend broke around 2012 and 2019: +314 → −248 → +493 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":11311.552,"last":19409.2901,"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":314,"slope_after":-248},{"year":2019,"slope_before":-248,"slope_after":493}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 5.74 → 3.02. Over the same years: births 2.36k → 1.52k; urban share 38.3% → 43.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.737,"end":3.02,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":2.358,"end":1.521},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":38.2567,"end":43.2867},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.78 → 1.48; births 0.93k → 0.74k; internet 51% → 81.3%; urban share 69.1% → 73.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,283 PPP dollars → 18,278 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.778,"end":1.484,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.927,"end":0.738},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":51,"end":81.3365},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":69.1197,"end":73.1105},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17282.6368,"end":18278.2253}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.94,"r_changes":0.916,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.951,"r_changes":-0.289,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.896,"r_changes":0.226,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.891,"r_changes":0.057,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −6.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.583,"actual":1.484,"gap_pct":-6.25}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-6.25,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.50 (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+5% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.484},"values":{"2050":1.499,"2100":1.557},"low_2100":1.057}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.964,"actual":0.738,"gap_pct":-23.44}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-23.44,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.74k, 2023) only around 2046: reality is 23 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.738,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2046,"years":23,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.59k (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.41k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.14k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.738},"values":{"2050":0.585,"2100":0.408},"low_2100":0.14}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=DMA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}