{"locations":[{"code":"DJI","name":"Djibouti","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/DJI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.82 in 1950 → 2.61 in 2023 (−62%). The trend broke around 1983 and 2012: −0.01 → −0.12 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.821,"last":2.609,"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":-0.0104,"slope_after":-0.116},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.116,"slope_after":-0.0604}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.82k in 1950 → 24k in 2023 (×8.5). The trend broke around 1971 and 1995: +0.19k → +0.76k → −0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.821,"last":23.95,"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.191,"slope_after":0.76},{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.76,"slope_after":-0.0191}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 65.3% in 2024 (+65 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2013, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 9.4% → 55.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":65.2989,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2013,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":9.4,"end":55.6814}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 50.8% in 1960 → 73% in 2025 (+22 pp). The trend broke around 1983 and 2012: +1.1 → −0.22 → +0.2 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":50.7989,"last":72.9759,"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":1.11,"slope_after":-0.225},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.225,"slope_after":0.203}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,469 PPP dollars in 2013 → 7,223 PPP dollars in 2025 (+62%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2025,"first":4469.0741,"last":7222.5499}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1994–2004: 5.51 → 4.16. Over the same years: births 23.3k → 26.1k; internet 0% → 0.8%; urban share 75.7% → 71.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":5.508,"end":4.162,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":23.31,"end":26.11},{"id":"internet_users","from":1995,"to":2004,"start":0.016,"end":0.7813},{"id":"urban_population","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":75.6911,"end":71.6452},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.19 → 2.61; births 24.2k → 24k; internet 12.7% → 64.8%; urban share 70.8% → 72.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,469 PPP dollars → 6,511 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.187,"end":2.609,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24.22,"end":23.95},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12.7,"end":64.7587},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":70.7969,"end":72.8408},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4469.0741,"end":6510.6786}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.846,"r_changes":0.065,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.763,"r_changes":0.117,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.41); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.80). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.412,"r_changes":0.804,"effective_pairs_changes":4,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2013–2023, 11 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.26). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"years":11,"r_levels":-0.992,"r_changes":-0.256,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −7.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.6,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-19.81},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.75,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-39.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.235,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-31.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.466,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-16.71},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.125,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-7.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.125,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-7.62},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.275,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-11.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.109,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-7.15},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.986,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":-3.32},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.758,"actual":2.8868,"gap_pct":4.67},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.72,"actual":2.609,"gap_pct":-4.08}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-7.62,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.61, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.609,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.61, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.609,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.05 (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.77 (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.27.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.609},"values":{"2050":2.05,"2100":1.766},"low_2100":1.266}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −2.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25.966,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-7.87},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25.819,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-7.35},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.269,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-15.38},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.845,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-10.89},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.609,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-2.79},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.624,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-2.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":27.478,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":-12.94},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":23.815,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":0.45},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21.783,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":9.82},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21.679,"actual":23.922,"gap_pct":10.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":24.643,"actual":23.95,"gap_pct":-2.81}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-2.85,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (24k, 2023) only around 2037: reality is 14 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":23.95,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2037,"years":14,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 23.6k (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 21.5k (−10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 9.72k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":23.95},"values":{"2050":23.64,"2100":21.5},"low_2100":9.719}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=DJI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}