{"locations":[{"code":"CYP","name":"Cyprus","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CYP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.87 in 1950 → 1.39 in 2023 (−64%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1995, below 1.5 since 2007. The trend broke around 1968 and 1974: −0.01 → −0.14 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.871,"last":1.389,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1995,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2007,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":-0.0149,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.0271}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 14.4k in 1950 → 14.5k in 2023 (+1%). Low: 11.1k in 1975; +31% since then. The trend broke around 1993 and 2000: +0.01k → −0.4k → +0.15k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":14.42,"last":14.52,"trough":{"year":1975,"value":11.06},"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.00512,"slope_after":-0.396},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.396,"slope_after":0.146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.6% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 4.4% → 28.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.601,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":4.38,"end":28.32}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 35.3% in 1960 → 66.7% in 2025 (+31 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1975. The trend broke around 1971 and 1983: +0.41 → +2.2 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":35.3071,"last":66.695,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1975,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.406,"slope_after":2.22},{"year":1983,"slope_before":2.22,"slope_after":0.00718}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 27,667 PPP dollars in 1990 → 54,103 PPP dollars in 2025 (+96%). The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +1,011 → −1,339 → +1,673 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":27666.5352,"last":54103.2617,"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":1010,"slope_after":-1340},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-1340,"slope_after":1670}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 3.47 → 2.11. Over the same years: births 15.5k → 11.1k; urban share 38.4% → 50.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":3.47,"end":2.107,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":15.45,"end":11.06},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":38.3631,"end":50.4137},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.30 → 1.39; births 13.1k → 14.5k; internet 65.5% → 91.2%; urban share 67.2% → 66.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 36,651 PPP dollars → 51,675 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.304,"end":1.389,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.05,"end":14.52},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":65.4548,"end":91.2211},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":67.2102,"end":66.6739},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":36650.5703,"end":51674.9023}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.49); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.97). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.493,"r_changes":0.972,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.818,"r_changes":0.069,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.851,"r_changes":-0.017,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.817,"r_changes":0.149,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-29.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-29.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-27.89},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.637,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-18.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.682,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-20.69},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.595,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-16.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.444,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-7.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.466,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-6.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.337,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-0.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.311,"actual":1.389,"gap_pct":5.95}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-16.36,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.39, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.389,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.42 (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.51 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.01.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.389},"values":{"2050":1.423,"2100":1.512},"low_2100":1.012}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.395,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":23.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.432,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":23.37},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.115,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":26.89},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.353,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":24.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.666,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":20.9},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.34,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":24.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.171,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":7.08},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.364,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":5.54},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.953,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":8.89},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.551,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":12.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":12.348,"actual":14.52,"gap_pct":17.59}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":20.9,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 12.4k (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.91k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":14.52},"values":{"2050":12.36,"2100":9.913},"low_2100":3.996}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CYP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}