{"locations":[{"code":"CYM","name":"Cayman Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CYM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.38 in 1950 → 1.53 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 4.89 in 1972; the latest value is 69% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1982. The trend broke around 1963 and 1984: +0.02 → −0.14 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.381,"last":1.531,"peak":{"year":1972,"value":4.887},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1982,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.021,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.00861}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.25k in 1950 → 0.87k in 2023 (×3.5). The trend broke around 1984 and 2005: 0k → +0.02k → +0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.249,"last":0.865,"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.0026,"slope_after":0.0169},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.0169,"slope_after":0.00638}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 81.1% in 2017 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 38% → 66%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":81.0677,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":38.0344,"end":66}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 92,213 PPP dollars in 2006 → 80,997 PPP dollars in 2024 (−12%). Low: 72,183 PPP dollars in 2020; +12% since then. The trend broke around 2012: direction reversed (−3,682 → +568 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2006,"to":2024,"first":92213.076,"last":80996.6507,"trough":{"year":2020,"value":72183.1359},"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":-3680,"slope_after":568}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1972–1982: 4.89 → 2.01. Over the same years: births 0.41k → 0.35k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":4.887,"end":2.008,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":0.409,"end":0.351},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.45 → 1.53; births 0.72k → 0.87k; internet 71.4% (2013); urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 72,989 PPP dollars → 79,581 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.445,"end":1.531,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.716,"end":0.865},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":71.4},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":72988.7063,"end":79580.8873}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.81). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.743,"r_changes":0.812,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 17 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.59).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":17,"r_levels":-0.628,"r_changes":0.59,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2006–2023, 18 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.58); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2006,"to":2023,"years":18,"r_levels":0.583,"r_changes":-0.158,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.206,"actual":1.531,"gap_pct":26.95}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":26.95,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.57 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.07.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.531},"values":{"2050":1.524,"2100":1.568},"low_2100":1.068}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +32%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.654,"actual":0.865,"gap_pct":32.26}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":32.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.98k (+13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1k (+16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.45k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.865},"values":{"2050":0.976,"2100":1.001},"low_2100":0.45}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CYM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}