{"locations":[{"code":"CUW","name":"Curaçao","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CUW/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.98 in 1950 → 1.07 in 2023 (−78%). Peak: 5.19 in 1958; the latest value is 79% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2013, below 1.5 since 2017. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: +0.01 → −0.19 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.981,"last":1.073,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":5.194},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2013,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2017,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0136,"slope_after":-0.194},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.194,"slope_after":-0.023}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.76k in 1950 → 1.39k in 2023 (−63%). Peak: 4.59k in 1960; the latest value is 70% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1971: +0.08k → −0.1k → −0.04k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.762,"last":1.394,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":4.591},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0831,"slope_after":-0.0971},{"year":1971,"slope_before":-0.0971,"slope_after":-0.0434}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 61.9% in 2016 → 68.1% in 2017 (+6.3 pp).","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":2016,"to":2017,"first":61.8555,"last":68.1272}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 75.2% in 1960 → 91.5% in 2025 (+16 pp). The trend broke around 1991 and 2000: +0.28 → +0.75 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":75.1695,"last":91.4728,"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":0.277,"slope_after":0.746},{"year":2000,"slope_before":0.746,"slope_after":0.0156}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 34,307 PPP dollars in 2000 → 28,762 PPP dollars in 2024 (−16%). Peak: 35,436 PPP dollars in 2002; the latest value is 19% lower.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2000,"to":2024,"first":34307.1251,"last":28762.0582,"peak":{"year":2002,"value":35435.9976}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 4.93 → 2.99. Over the same years: births 4.54k → 3.5k; urban share 76.1% → 79.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":4.927,"end":2.992,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":4.535,"end":3.504},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":76.0918,"end":79.3404},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.10 → 1.07; births 2.19k → 1.39k; urban share 91.3% → 91.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,753 PPP dollars → 27,618 PPP dollars; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.098,"end":1.073,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.191,"end":1.394},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":91.2939,"end":91.4081},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31753.3845,"end":27617.9204}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.89); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.78). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.891,"r_changes":0.784,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.807,"r_changes":0.285,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2000–2023, 24 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2000,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":0.919,"r_changes":0.187,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.88,"actual":1.4641,"gap_pct":-22.12},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.054,"actual":1.4641,"gap_pct":-28.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.018,"actual":1.4641,"gap_pct":-27.45},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.641,"actual":1.073,"gap_pct":-34.61}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-28.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.22 (+14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.38 (+29% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.88.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.073},"values":{"2050":1.223,"2100":1.384},"low_2100":0.884}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.944,"actual":1.6638,"gap_pct":-14.41},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.123,"actual":1.6638,"gap_pct":-21.63},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.005,"actual":1.6638,"gap_pct":-17.02},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.195,"actual":1.394,"gap_pct":-36.49}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-19.32,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.17k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.74k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.23k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.394},"values":{"2050":1.17,"2100":0.739},"low_2100":0.232}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CUW&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}