{"locations":[{"code":"CUB","name":"Cuba","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CUB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.03 in 1950 → 1.44 in 2023 (−64%). Peak: 4.56 in 1963; the latest value is 68% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1978, below 1.5 since 2020. The trend broke around 1968 and 1979: +0.04 → −0.25 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.032,"last":1.439,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":4.559},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1978,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.037,"slope_after":-0.249},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.249,"slope_after":-0.00554}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 190k in 1950 → 95.9k in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 276k in 1965; the latest value is 65% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1978: +5.92k → −11.4k → −1.48k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":189.9,"last":95.94,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":276.3},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":5.92,"slope_after":-11.4},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-11.4,"slope_after":-1.48}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 70.5% in 2024 (+70 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 29.1% → 68%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":70.477,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":29.0702,"end":67.9708}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 57.7% in 1960 → 77.2% in 2025 (+20 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1997. The trend broke around 1969 and 1989: +0.23 → +0.72 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":57.7107,"last":77.2271,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1997,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.229,"slope_after":0.724},{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.724,"slope_after":0.0983}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1969–1979: 4.12 → 1.77. Over the same years: births 269k → 142k; urban share 59.9% → 67.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":4.124,"end":1.771,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":268.7,"end":142.2},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":59.9497,"end":67.7159}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.68 → 1.44; births 126k → 95.9k; internet 27.9% → 69.6%; urban share 76.8% → 77.1%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.678,"end":1.439,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":126,"end":95.94},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":27.93,"end":69.5558},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":76.8164,"end":77.126}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.96). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.902,"r_changes":0.962,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.06).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.331,"r_changes":-0.06,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.939,"r_changes":-0.551,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":-10},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":-10},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":-10},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.671,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":-5.21},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.64,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":-3.41},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.571,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":0.83},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.436,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":10.31},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.453,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":9.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.582,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":0.13},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.716,"actual":1.584,"gap_pct":-7.69},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.457,"actual":1.439,"gap_pct":-1.24}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.57 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.07.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.439},"values":{"2050":1.513,"2100":1.566},"low_2100":1.066}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":127.679,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":-11.39},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":127.472,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":-11.24},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":124.166,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":-8.88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":118.584,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":-4.59},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":114.066,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":-0.81},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":110.733,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":2.17},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":101.512,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":11.45},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":102.653,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":10.22},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":110.427,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":2.46},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":122.334,"actual":113.14,"gap_pct":-7.52},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":98.937,"actual":95.94,"gap_pct":-3.03}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.03,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (95.9k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":95.94,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (95.9k, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":95.94,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 67.4k (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 38.4k (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 10.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":95.94},"values":{"2050":67.4,"2100":38.41},"low_2100":10.59}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CUB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}