{"locations":[{"code":"CRI","name":"Costa Rica","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CRI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.32 in 1950 → 1.33 in 2023 (−79%). Peak: 6.73 in 1959; the latest value is 80% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2003, below 1.5 since 2020. The trend broke around 1962 and 1972: +0.03 → −0.27 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.317,"last":1.33,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":6.731},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2003,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.0255,"slope_after":-0.267},{"year":1972,"slope_before":-0.267,"slope_after":-0.0554}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 41.6k in 1950 → 45.4k in 2025 (+9%). Peak: 84.2k in 1987; the latest value is 46% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 2017: +0.94k → −0.55k → −3.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":41.6,"last":45.384,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":84.21},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.939,"slope_after":-0.555},{"year":2017,"slope_before":-0.555,"slope_after":-3.02}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 87.2% in 2024 (+87 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 53% → 81.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":87.1702,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":53,"end":81.2026}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34.1% in 1960 → 79.7% in 2025 (+46 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1992, above 75% since 2015. The trend broke around 1990 and 2012: +0.47 → +1.2 → +0.5 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.105,"last":79.7268,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1992,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.472,"slope_after":1.16},{"year":2012,"slope_before":1.16,"slope_after":0.505}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,980 PPP dollars in 1990 → 28,443 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.6).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10979.7881,"last":28443.4128}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 6.39 → 3.99. Over the same years: births 63.3k → 59.8k; urban share 34.5% → 40.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":6.389,"end":3.991,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":63.3,"end":59.78},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":34.4893,"end":40.6645},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.78 → 1.33; births 69.7k → 52k; internet 46% → 85.4%; urban share 73.9% → 78.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 20,242 PPP dollars → 26,379 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.779,"end":1.33,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":69.66,"end":51.97},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.96,"end":85.3951},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":73.9432,"end":78.8819},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20242.2939,"end":26378.541}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.68). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.548,"r_changes":0.679,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.915,"r_changes":0.033,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.904,"r_changes":-0.191,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.941,"r_changes":0.284,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −9.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.32,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-27.69},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.32,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-27.69},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.919,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-12.57},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.853,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-9.46},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.853,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-9.46},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.852,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-9.41},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.719,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-2.4},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.729,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-2.97},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.765,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-4.95},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.764,"actual":1.6777,"gap_pct":-4.89},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.518,"actual":1.33,"gap_pct":-12.38}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-9.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (1.33, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.33,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (1.33, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.33,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.38 (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.49 (+12% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.99.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.33},"values":{"2050":1.384,"2100":1.492},"low_2100":0.992}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":96.803,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-47.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":96.836,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-47.36},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":79.047,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-35.51},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.162,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-33.07},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.162,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-33.07},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":75.797,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-32.74},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":68.29,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-25.35},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":70.023,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-27.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":65.736,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-22.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":65.812,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-22.54},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":65.996,"actual":50.9774,"gap_pct":-22.76},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":59.519,"actual":45.384,"gap_pct":-23.75}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-29.97,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (45.4k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":45.384,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (45.4k, 2025) only around 2064: reality is 39 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":45.384,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2064,"years":39,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 45.4k, 10% below the UN 2024 medium variant (50.6k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":50.63,"actual_births_k":45.384,"gap_pct":-10.4,"un_lower95_births_k":39.8,"below_lower95":false,"source":"UN VSR table 3 (16 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/vitstats/seratab3.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 40.9k (−10% vs 2025), 2100 — 24.3k (−46% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 7.28k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":45.384},"values":{"2050":40.86,"2100":24.32},"low_2100":7.281}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CRI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}