{"locations":[{"code":"CPV","name":"Cape Verde","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CPV/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.50 in 1950 → 1.52 in 2023 (−77%). Peak: 6.99 in 1965; the latest value is 78% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2013. The trend broke around 1978 and 2008: +0.01 → −0.15 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.497,"last":1.522,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":6.993},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2013,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.00833,"slope_after":-0.151},{"year":2008,"slope_before":-0.151,"slope_after":-0.061}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 8.63k in 1950 → 6.44k in 2023 (−25%). Peak: 15.3k in 1992; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1990: direction reversed (+0.18k → −0.28k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.632,"last":6.44,"peak":{"year":1992,"value":15.27},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.182,"slope_after":-0.277}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 74.7% in 2024 (+75 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 42.7% → 69.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":74.7352,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":42.683,"end":69.3734}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 6.5% in 1960 → 77.6% in 2025 (+71 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1996, above 75% since 2022. The trend broke around 1983 and 1989: +0.88 → +2.5 → +0.93 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":6.5001,"last":77.6301,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1996,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.884,"slope_after":2.55},{"year":1989,"slope_before":2.55,"slope_after":0.934}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,849 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,396 PPP dollars in 2025 (×5.6). The trend broke around 2008: change slowed down (+291 → +167 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1848.7587,"last":10395.7415,"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":291,"slope_after":167}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1992–2002: 5.12 → 3.19. Over the same years: births 15.3k → 12k; internet 3.5% (2002); urban share 46.6% → 55.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,985 PPP dollars → 4,710 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":5.123,"end":3.192,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":15.27,"end":12},{"id":"internet_users","year":2002,"value":3.5188},{"id":"urban_population","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":46.5645,"end":55.5703},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":1984.6806,"end":4710.241}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.07 → 1.52; births 9.43k → 6.44k; internet 37.5% → 74.6%; urban share 64.7% → 75.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 7,441 PPP dollars → 9,228 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.067,"end":1.522,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":9.425,"end":6.44},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":37.5,"end":74.5992},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.7486,"end":75.9064},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7440.6624,"end":9228.4605}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.39); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.52). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.389,"r_changes":0.516,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.52). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.823,"r_changes":0.518,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.971,"r_changes":-0.023,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.978,"r_changes":0.024,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.26,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-18.78},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.26,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-18.78},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.404,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-23.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.8,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-34.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.8,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-34.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.381,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-22.91},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.067,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-11.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.139,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-14.19},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.186,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-16.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.289,"actual":1.8355,"gap_pct":-19.81},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.858,"actual":1.522,"gap_pct":-18.08}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.52, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.522,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.52, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.522,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.50 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.54 (+1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.04.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.522},"values":{"2050":1.498,"2100":1.539},"low_2100":1.039}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −32%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.984,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-32.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.704,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-30.58},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.8,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-36.52},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.946,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-49.04},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.946,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-49.04},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.153,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-33.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.688,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-16.13},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.768,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-16.82},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.863,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-25.2},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.334,"actual":8.1254,"gap_pct":-28.31},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":9.807,"actual":6.44,"gap_pct":-34.33}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-32.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (6.44k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.44,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (6.44k, 2023) only around 2084: reality is 61 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.44,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2084,"years":61,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.55k (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.93k (−55% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.82k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.44},"values":{"2050":5.549,"2100":2.927},"low_2100":0.818}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CPV&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}