{"locations":[{"code":"COM","name":"Comoros","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/COM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.69 in 1950 → 3.88 in 2023 (−32%). Peak: 7.17 in 1973; the latest value is 46% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 1999: +0.05 → −0.11 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.686,"last":3.878,"peak":{"year":1973,"value":7.165},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.0452,"slope_after":-0.111},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.111,"slope_after":-0.0603}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 7.28k in 1950 → 24.4k in 2023 (×3.3). The trend broke around 1972 and 1983: +0.2k → +0.48k → +0.18k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.283,"last":24.37,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.198,"slope_after":0.481},{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.481,"slope_after":0.18}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 32.5% in 2024 (+33 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 8.5% → 31.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":32.5175,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":8.4782,"end":31.3741}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 13.2% in 1960 → 33.9% in 2025 (+21 pp). The trend broke around 1990 and 2007: +0.46 → −0.03 → +0.32 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":13.1582,"last":33.9415,"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.462,"slope_after":-0.0278},{"year":2007,"slope_before":-0.0278,"slope_after":0.323}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,179 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,622 PPP dollars in 2025 (+14%). Low: 2,907 PPP dollars in 1994; +25% since then. The trend broke around 1998: direction reversed (−13 → +24 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3178.8548,"last":3621.7663,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":2907.4223},"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":-13,"slope_after":24}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 6.76 → 5.39. Over the same years: births 19k → 18.8k; internet 0% (1998); urban share 27.7% → 28.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,978 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":6.764,"end":5.392,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":18.98,"end":18.81},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":0.0379},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":27.6867,"end":28.1551},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":2978.3712}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.57 → 3.88; births 23.6k → 24.4k; internet 6.5% → 31.9%; urban share 29.7% → 33.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,406 PPP dollars → 3,508 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.572,"end":3.878,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":23.57,"end":24.37},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.5,"end":31.9275},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.7043,"end":33.1502},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3406.4992,"end":3508.1586}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.73); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.735,"r_changes":0.379,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.789,"r_changes":-0.04,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.45). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.795,"r_changes":0.451,"effective_pairs_changes":4,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.829,"r_changes":0.233,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.84,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":49.42},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.64,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":16.58},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.298,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":28.67},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.338,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":27.13},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.338,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":27.13},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.229,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":31.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.425,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":-4.1},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.433,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":-4.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.233,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":0.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.237,"actual":4.2435,"gap_pct":0.15},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.846,"actual":3.878,"gap_pct":0.83}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":16.58,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.88) already around 2006: reality is 17 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.878,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2006,"years":17,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (3.88) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.878,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.76 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.98 (−49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.48.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.878},"values":{"2050":2.755,"2100":1.982},"low_2100":1.482}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25.302,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-5.73},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":32.851,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-27.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":29.075,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-17.97},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.764,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-17.08},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.372,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-15.93},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.625,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":15.64},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.652,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-16.76},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.682,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-10.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.88,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-11.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.423,"actual":23.851,"gap_pct":-9.73},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":24.191,"actual":24.37,"gap_pct":0.74}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-11.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 27.7k (+14% vs 2023), 2100 — 24.7k (+1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 11.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":24.37},"values":{"2050":27.74,"2100":24.73},"low_2100":11.71}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=COM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}