{"locations":[{"code":"COK","name":"Cook Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/COK/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.79 in 1950 → 2.05 in 2023 (−70%). Peak: 7.27 in 1961; the latest value is 72% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2021. The trend broke around 1965 and 1978: +0.03 → −0.22 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.786,"last":2.045,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":7.272},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2021,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0302,"slope_after":-0.219},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.219,"slope_after":-0.0575}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.66k in 1950 → 0.18k in 2023 (−73%). Peak: 0.84k in 1962; the latest value is 79% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1976: +0.01k → −0.03k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.659,"last":0.178,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":0.835},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.0107,"slope_after":-0.0289},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.0289,"slope_after":-0.00751}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 6.95 → 4.77. Over the same years: births 0.8k → 0.52k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":6.946,"end":4.77,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":0.796,"end":0.522}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.29 → 2.05; births 0.3k → 0.18k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.292,"end":2.045,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.297,"end":0.178}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.75). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.974,"r_changes":0.753,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.207,"actual":2.045,"gap_pct":-7.34}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-7.34,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.05, 2023) only around 2033: reality is 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2033,"years":10,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.78 (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.68 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.18.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.045},"values":{"2050":1.777,"2100":1.684},"low_2100":1.184}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −35%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.272,"actual":0.178,"gap_pct":-34.56}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-34.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.18k, 2023) only around 2080: reality is 57 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.178,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2080,"years":57,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.11k (−38% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.07k (−61% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.02k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.178},"values":{"2050":0.11,"2100":0.069},"low_2100":0.024}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=COK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}