{"locations":[{"code":"COG","name":"Republic of the Congo","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/COG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.07 in 1950 → 4.16 in 2023 (−31%). Peak: 6.44 in 1972; the latest value is 35% lower. The trend broke around 1975 and 1993: +0.02 → −0.08 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.065,"last":4.157,"peak":{"year":1972,"value":6.444},"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.017,"slope_after":-0.0759},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0759,"slope_after":-0.0238}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 38k in 1950 → 189k in 2023 (×5). The trend broke around 1999 and 2011: +1.54k → +5.58k → +1.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":37.99,"last":189.4,"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":1.54,"slope_after":5.58},{"year":2011,"slope_before":5.58,"slope_after":1.03}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 47.3% in 2024 (+47 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 8.7% → 41%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":47.2516,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":8.65,"end":40.9867}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 36.7% in 1960 → 64.1% in 2025 (+27 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1983. The trend broke around 1974 and 1986: +0.18 → +1.3 → +0.3 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":36.7194,"last":64.1237,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1983,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.18,"slope_after":1.25},{"year":1986,"slope_before":1.25,"slope_after":0.299}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,700 PPP dollars in 1990 → 6,194 PPP dollars in 2025 (−29%). Peak: 9,159 PPP dollars in 2014; the latest value is 32% lower. The trend broke around 1999 and 2014: −158 → +93 → −290 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8699.5268,"last":6194.0898,"peak":{"year":2014,"value":9159.2566},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-158,"slope_after":93.2},{"year":2014,"slope_before":93.2,"slope_after":-290}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1978–1988: 6.21 → 5.39. Over the same years: births 74.6k → 88.2k; urban share 43.8% → 53.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1978,"to":1988,"start":6.21,"end":5.392,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1978,"to":1988,"start":74.64,"end":88.22},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1978,"to":1988,"start":43.7915,"end":53.7962},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.73 → 4.16; births 179k → 189k; internet 6.6% → 43.2%; urban share 62.9% → 63.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,798 PPP dollars → 6,172 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.731,"end":4.157,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":178.9,"end":189.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.6,"end":43.1504},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":62.8683,"end":63.6627},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":8798.4938,"end":6172.2878}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.914,"r_changes":0.575,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.812,"r_changes":-0.128,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.63). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.967,"r_changes":-0.628,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.65); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.65,"r_changes":0.342,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.198,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":6.4},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.13,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":-12.93},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.037,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":-11.33},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.664,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":-21.14},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.549,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":25.85},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.486,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":28.13},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.191,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":6.57},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.691,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":-4.79},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.644,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":-3.82},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.561,"actual":4.4665,"gap_pct":-2.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.034,"actual":4.157,"gap_pct":3.05}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-2.07,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.16) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.157,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (4.16, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.157,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.00 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.18 (−48% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.68.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.157},"values":{"2050":3.001,"2100":2.175},"low_2100":1.675}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +3.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":163.606,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":9.76},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":196.507,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":-8.62},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":214.557,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":-16.31},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":244.137,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":-26.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135.585,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":32.44},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":130.594,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":37.5},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":154.688,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":16.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":174.71,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":2.78},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":171.356,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":4.79},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":180.049,"actual":179.57,"gap_pct":-0.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":182.217,"actual":189.4,"gap_pct":3.94}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":3.94,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (189k) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":189.4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (189k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":189.4,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 263k (+39% vs 2023), 2100 — 304k (+61% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 157k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":189.4},"values":{"2050":262.6,"2100":304.1},"low_2100":156.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=COG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}