{"locations":[{"code":"COD","name":"DR Congo","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/COD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.97 in 1950 → 6.05 in 2023 (+1%). The trend broke around 1989 and 2013: +0.02 → −0.01 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.966,"last":6.051,"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.0199,"slope_after":-0.0059},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-0.0059,"slope_after":-0.049}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 564k in 1950 → 4.37M in 2023 (×7.8). The trend broke around 1980 and 2006: +21.7k → +55.4k → +102k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":563.7,"last":4370,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":21.7,"slope_after":55.4},{"year":2006,"slope_before":55.4,"slope_after":102}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 19.7% in 2024 (+20 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 3.8% → 14.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":19.6735,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":3.8,"end":14.5105}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 22.3% in 1960 → 45.1% in 2025 (+23 pp). The trend broke around 1985: change sped up (+0.25 → +0.46 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":22.3,"last":45.1136,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.25,"slope_after":0.461}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,404 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,641 PPP dollars in 2025 (−32%). Low: 929 PPP dollars in 2002; +77% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: −176 → −44 → +29 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2403.9703,"last":1640.5662,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":929.4528},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-176,"slope_after":-44.4},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-44.4,"slope_after":29.5}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1957–1967: 6.01 → 6.27. Over the same years: births 663k → 884k; urban share 23.4% (1967); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1957,"to":1967,"start":6.009,"end":6.267,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1957,"to":1967,"start":662.7,"end":883.8},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1967,"value":23.3687},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 6.53 → 6.05; births 3.31M → 4.37M; internet 2.2% → 19%; urban share 40.6% → 44.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,343 PPP dollars → 1,559 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.527,"end":6.051,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3311,"end":4370},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.2,"end":18.9679},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":40.5675,"end":44.3755},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1342.7416,"end":1559.3381}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.30); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04). Changes line up best with a 8 years shift: \"Births\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = −0.50).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.303,"r_changes":0.044,"effective_pairs_changes":48,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-8,"r":-0.498,"leader":"births"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.963,"r_changes":-0.173,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.14); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.143,"r_changes":0.159,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.14); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.141,"r_changes":0.182,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.39,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":44.04},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.42,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":16.67},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.516,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":14.64},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.033,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":4.81},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.033,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":4.81},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.944,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":27.9},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.929,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":28.29},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.469,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":15.62},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.664,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":11.64},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.963,"actual":6.3233,"gap_pct":6.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.051,"actual":6.051,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":14.64,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (6.05) already around 2001: reality is 22 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.051,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2001,"years":22,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (6.05) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.051,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.66 (−40% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.16 (−64% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.66.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.051},"values":{"2050":3.659,"2100":2.162},"low_2100":1.662}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3123.21,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":21.27},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3780.68,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":0.18},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3355.509,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":12.87},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3786.213,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":0.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3901.68,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":-2.93},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3260.605,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":16.16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3143.1,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":20.5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3110.364,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":21.77},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3385.979,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":11.86},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3431.554,"actual":3787.4,"gap_pct":10.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4237.354,"actual":4370,"gap_pct":3.13}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":11.86,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (4.37M, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4370,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.37M, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4370,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 6.28M (+44% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.81M (+56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.8M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4370},"values":{"2050":6283,"2100":6813},"low_2100":3795}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=COD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}