{"locations":[{"code":"CMR","name":"Cameroon","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CMR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.73 in 1950 → 4.32 in 2023 (−25%). Peak: 6.61 in 1980; the latest value is 35% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1982: 0 → +0.05 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.731,"last":4.322,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":6.613},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":-0.000728,"slope_after":0.0498},{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.0498,"slope_after":-0.0576}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 191k in 1950 → 957k in 2023 (×5). The trend broke around 1967: change sped up (+3.94k → +10.3k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":190.9,"last":957.4,"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":3.94,"slope_after":10.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 46.3% in 2024 (+46 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 16.2% → 36.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":46.2588,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":16.2149,"end":36.5392}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 13.6% in 1960 → 55.7% in 2025 (+42 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2008.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":13.6119,"last":55.6692,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,518 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,946 PPP dollars in 2025 (+9%). Low: 3,523 PPP dollars in 1994; +40% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2004: −144 → +90 → +40 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4517.6189,"last":4945.9564,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":3522.7489},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-144,"slope_after":89.9},{"year":2004,"slope_before":89.9,"slope_after":40}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1991–2001: 6.32 → 5.44. Over the same years: births 507k → 623k; internet 0% → 0.3%; urban share 40.8% → 46.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,221 PPP dollars → 3,885 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":6.324,"end":5.441,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":507.2,"end":622.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2001,"start":0,"end":0.2771},{"id":"urban_population","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":40.7702,"end":46.7628},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":4220.653,"end":3884.873}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.91 → 4.32; births 815k → 957k; internet 10% → 42.2%; urban share 51.9% → 55.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,474 PPP dollars → 4,875 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.905,"end":4.322,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":814.9,"end":957.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10,"end":42.2438},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":51.9476,"end":55.1287},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4473.5723,"end":4875.2512}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.51). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.715,"r_changes":0.515,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.879,"r_changes":-0.003,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.631,"r_changes":0.206,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.26). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.784,"r_changes":0.259,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.59,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":32.23},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.5,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":35.63},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.119,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":52.2},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.204,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":48.16},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.346,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":41.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.731,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":27.24},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.934,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":20.67},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.451,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":6.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.456,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":6.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.603,"actual":4.7472,"gap_pct":3.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.302,"actual":4.322,"gap_pct":0.46}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":27.24,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.32) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.322,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (4.32) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.322,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.96 (−32% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.10 (−51% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.60.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.322},"values":{"2050":2.958,"2100":2.098},"low_2100":1.598}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":705.216,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":28.28},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":626.906,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":44.3},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":533.243,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":69.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":550.715,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":64.26},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":639.919,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":41.37},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":717.127,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":26.15},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":742.123,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":21.9},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":876.192,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":3.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":868.593,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":4.15},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":865.44,"actual":904.63,"gap_pct":4.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":967.736,"actual":957.4,"gap_pct":-1.07}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":26.15,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (957k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":957.4,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (957k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":957.4,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.23M (+28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.29M (+35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 651k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":957.4},"values":{"2050":1228,"2100":1294},"low_2100":650.7}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CMR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}