{"locations":[{"code":"CIV","name":"Côte d'Ivoire","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CIV/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.61 in 1950 → 4.28 in 2023 (−44%). Peak: 7.94 in 1972; the latest value is 46% lower. The trend broke around 1976: direction reversed (+0.02 → −0.1 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.61,"last":4.283,"peak":{"year":1972,"value":7.942},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.0179,"slope_after":-0.0962}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 149k in 1950 → 997k in 2023 (×6.7). The trend broke around 1977 and 2012: +8.17k → +17.5k → +2.24k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":148.5,"last":997,"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":8.17,"slope_after":17.5},{"year":2012,"slope_before":17.5,"slope_after":2.24}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 41.4% in 2024 (+41 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 4.4% → 43.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":41.4322,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":4.4,"end":43.8399}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 18.4% in 1960 → 54.5% in 2025 (+36 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2017. The trend broke around 1979: change slowed down (+0.91 → +0.29 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":18.4325,"last":54.549,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":0.915,"slope_after":0.295}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,256 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,015 PPP dollars in 2025 (+33%). Low: 4,000 PPP dollars in 2007; +75% since then. The trend broke around 1999 and 2008: −12 → −114 → +182 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":5255.5485,"last":7014.8458,"trough":{"year":2007,"value":3999.7205},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-12.3,"slope_after":-114},{"year":2008,"slope_before":-114,"slope_after":182}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 7.27 → 6.04. Over the same years: births 483k → 655k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 38.4% → 41.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,639 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":7.273,"end":6.038,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":483.2,"end":655.1},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.0002},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":38.3956,"end":41.2921},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":4638.7916}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 5.14 → 4.28; births 968k → 997k; internet 6.6% → 40.7%; urban share 48.6% → 53.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,597 PPP dollars → 6,521 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.135,"end":4.283,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":968.4,"end":997},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.6,"end":40.6528},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":48.5702,"end":53.4075},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4597.2204,"end":6520.8989}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.963,"r_changes":-0.043,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 3 years shift: \"Internet\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = −0.65).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.842,"r_changes":-0.078,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-3,"r":-0.649,"leader":"internet_users"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.911,"r_changes":0.361,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.50); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.498,"r_changes":0.023,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.918,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":60.83},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.25,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":44.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.147,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":49.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.444,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":36.26},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.444,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":36.26},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.716,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":26.29},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.861,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":21.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.561,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":2.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.768,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":-1.58},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.811,"actual":4.6929,"gap_pct":-2.45},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.288,"actual":4.283,"gap_pct":-0.12}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":26.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.28) already around 2004: reality is 19 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.283,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2004,"years":19,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.28, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.283,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.07 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.17 (−49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.67.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.283},"values":{"2050":3.07,"2100":2.171},"low_2100":1.671}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +34%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":546.098,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":78.19},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":622.573,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":56.3},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":563.701,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":72.62},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":674.679,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":44.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":697.258,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":39.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":768.83,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":26.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":724.808,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":34.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":784.885,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":23.98},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":874.741,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":11.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":896.981,"actual":973.08,"gap_pct":8.48},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":959.962,"actual":997,"gap_pct":3.86}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":34.25,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (997k, 2023) only around 2044: reality is 21 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":997,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2044,"years":21,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (997k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":997,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41M (+41% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72M (+72% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 929k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":997},"values":{"2050":1407,"2100":1718},"low_2100":928.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CIV&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}