{"locations":[{"code":"CHN","name":"China","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CHN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.81 in 1950 → 1.00 in 2023 (−83%). Peak: 7.51 in 1963; the latest value is 87% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1991, below 1.5 since 2019. The trend broke around 1970 and 1977: +0.02 → −0.49 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.813,"last":1,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":7.513},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1991,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0168,"slope_after":-0.492},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.492,"slope_after":-0.0335}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 22.3M in 1950 → 7.92M in 2025 (−64%). Peak: 33.5M in 1963; the latest value is 76% lower. The trend broke around 1968: direction reversed (+329k → −291k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":22293,"last":7920,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":33461},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":329,"slope_after":-291}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 91.6% in 2025 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2015, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 64.1% → 92%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":91.6,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":64.0809,"end":92}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 19.7% in 1960 → 66.3% in 2025 (+47 pp). Low: 16.8% in 1963; +50 pp since then. Threshold: above 50% since 2011. The trend broke around 1976 and 1995: −0.09 → +0.68 → +1.3 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":19.7456,"last":66.343,"trough":{"year":1963,"value":16.8363},"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.0921,"slope_after":0.677},{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.677,"slope_after":1.32}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,667 PPP dollars in 1990 → 25,067 PPP dollars in 2025 (×15). The trend broke around 2003: change sped up (+261 → +757 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1666.8141,"last":25066.5215,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":261,"slope_after":757}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 6.51 → 2.72. Over the same years: births 31.7M → 20.2M; urban share 17.6% → 17.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":6.508,"end":2.716,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":31650,"end":20249},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":17.6204,"end":17.9152},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.71 → 1.00; births 18.3M → 8.9M; internet 45.8% → 90.6%; urban share 54.5% → 65.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,081 PPP dollars → 22,687 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.714,"end":1,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18297,"end":8900},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.8,"end":90.6},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.49,"end":65.5301},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13080.8788,"end":22687.252}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.95). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.799,"r_changes":0.954,"effective_pairs_changes":47,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.47); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.13).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.47,"r_changes":-0.132,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.69); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.34).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.689,"r_changes":-0.338,"effective_pairs_changes":56,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.53); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.533,"r_changes":0.135,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-15.21},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-15.21},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-12.92},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-12.92},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.825,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-11.73},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.837,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-12.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.511,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":6.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.694,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-4.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.591,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.635,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-1.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.19,"actual":1,"gap_pct":-15.97}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-12.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.18 (+18% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.35 (+35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.85.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1},"values":{"2050":1.184,"2100":1.345},"low_2100":0.846}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −40%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":17592.779,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-45.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":17442.979,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-44.69},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":16972.775,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-43.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":16637.684,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-42.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":17379.817,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-44.49},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":16694.726,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-42.21},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":13744.84,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-29.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":15282.851,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-36.87},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":13875.861,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-30.47},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":14803.892,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-34.83},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":15420.031,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-37.44},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":10441.801,"actual":7920,"gap_pct":-24.15}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-39.72,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (7.92M, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":7920,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (7.92M, 2025) only around 2064: reality is 39 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":7920,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2064,"years":39,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 7.92M, 9% below the UN 2024 medium variant (8.71M).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"estimate","un_medium_births_k":8709,"actual_births_k":7920,"gap_pct":-9.1,"un_lower95_births_k":6496,"below_lower95":false,"source":"National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development","source_url":"https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202602/t20260228_1962662.html"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 7.37M (−7% vs 2025), 2100 — 3.1M (−61% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 643k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":7920},"values":{"2050":7371,"2100":3100},"low_2100":643.1}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CHN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}