{"locations":[{"code":"CHL","name":"Chile","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CHL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.84 in 1950 → 0.99 in 2025 (−80%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1999, below 1.5 since 2019, below 1.0 since 2025. The trend broke around 1962 and 1978: −0.01 → −0.11 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":4.836,"last":0.99,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1999,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2019,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2025,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":-0.0134,"slope_after":-0.112},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.112,"slope_after":-0.0352}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 249k in 1950 → 154k in 2024 (−38%). Peak: 298k in 1991; the latest value is 48% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 2018: +0.32k → −2.33k → −9.98k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":248.6,"last":154.441,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":297.9},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.32,"slope_after":-2.33},{"year":2018,"slope_before":-2.33,"slope_after":-9.98}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.6% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 45% → 76.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":95.5902,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":45,"end":76.6296}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 67.8% in 1960 → 89.2% in 2025 (+21 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1970. The trend broke around 1978: change slowed down (+0.72 → +0.22 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":67.8401,"last":89.1773,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1970,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.717,"slope_after":0.219}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,955 PPP dollars in 1990 → 30,863 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.8). The trend broke around 2014: change slowed down (+666 → +269 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10955.2486,"last":30863.4223,"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":666,"slope_after":269}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 4.36 → 3.18. Over the same years: births 292k → 272k; urban share 71.8% → 78.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":4.364,"end":3.182,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":291.7,"end":271.9},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":71.776,"end":78.8131},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.74 → 0.99; births 237k → 154k; internet 76.6% → 95.6%; urban share 87.5% → 89.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 27,818 PPP dollars → 30,863 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.737,"end":0.99,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":237.3,"end":154.441},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":76.6296,"end":95.5902},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":87.4653,"end":89.1773},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":27817.9585,"end":30863.4223}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.64); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.86). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.635,"r_changes":0.86,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.93,"r_changes":0.191,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.63). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.991,"r_changes":-0.629,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 1 year shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.59).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.926,"r_changes":0.139,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-1,"r":0.591,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.151,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-28.01},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.151,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-28.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.151,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-28.01},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-16.3},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.849,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-16.26},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.849,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-16.26},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.776,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-12.82},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.786,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-13.3},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.727,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-10.34},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.765,"actual":1.5484,"gap_pct":-12.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.53,"actual":0.99,"gap_pct":-35.29}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-16.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.24 (+25% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.41 (+42% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.91.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.99},"values":{"2050":1.24,"2100":1.409},"low_2100":0.909}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":294.167,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-25.39},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":294.167,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-25.39},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":295.107,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-25.62},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":251.106,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-12.59},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":251.038,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-12.57},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":251.038,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-12.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":240.976,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-8.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":243.45,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-9.84},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":233.038,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-5.81},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":236.971,"actual":219.49,"gap_pct":-7.38},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":222.78,"actual":154.441,"gap_pct":-30.68}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-12.57,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (154k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":154.441,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (154k, 2024) only around 2075: reality is 51 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":154.441,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2075,"years":51,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 154k, 10% below the UN 2024 medium variant (172k).","data":{"year":2024,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":172.4,"actual_births_k":154.441,"gap_pct":-10.4,"un_lower95_births_k":138.4,"below_lower95":false,"source":"UN VSR table 3 (16 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/vitstats/seratab3.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 144k (−7% vs 2024), 2100 — 80.1k (−48% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 23.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":154.441},"values":{"2050":143.8,"2100":80.09},"low_2100":23.71}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CHL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}