{"locations":[{"code":"CHE","name":"Switzerland","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CHE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.40 in 1950 → 1.28 in 2025 (−47%). Peak: 2.65 in 1964; the latest value is 52% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1971, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1965 and 1976: +0.02 → −0.1 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.399,"last":1.28,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.653},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1971,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0222,"slope_after":-0.096},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.096,"slope_after":-0.00214}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 84.4k in 1950 → 78.2k in 2025 (−7%). Peak: 112k in 1964; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1977: +2.08k → −3.36k → +0.2k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":84.39,"last":78.153,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":111.9},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":2.08,"slope_after":-3.36},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-3.36,"slope_after":0.198}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.6% in 1990 → 97.3% in 2025 (+97 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2018. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 4.6% → 55.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0.596,"last":97.321,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":4.55,"end":55.1}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 51% in 1960 → 85.7% in 2025 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 2015. The trend broke around 1999 and 2013: +0.57 → +0.04 → +1.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":51.0185,"last":85.7272,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.567,"slope_after":0.0398},{"year":2013,"slope_before":0.0398,"slope_after":1.12}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 63,921 PPP dollars in 1990 → 85,732 PPP dollars in 2025 (+34%). Low: 59,203 PPP dollars in 1993; +45% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":63921.4227,"last":85732.1098,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":59202.985}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 2.59 → 1.61. Over the same years: births 111k → 78.9k; urban share 54.4% → 59.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":2.587,"end":1.614,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":111.4,"end":78.94},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":54.4008,"end":59.3927},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.54 → 1.28; births 85.5k → 78.2k; internet 87.5% → 97.3%; urban share 75.6% → 85.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 78,326 PPP dollars → 85,732 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.537,"end":1.28,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":85.48,"end":78.153},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":87.4791,"end":97.321},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":75.6045,"end":85.7272},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":78325.7487,"end":85732.1098}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.79); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.792,"r_changes":0.924,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.337,"r_changes":-0.029,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.774,"r_changes":0.051,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.327,"r_changes":0.147,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.7,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-17.45},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.476,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-4.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.567,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-10.44},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.57,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-10.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.545,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-9.17},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.585,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-11.46},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.666,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-15.76},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.618,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-13.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.616,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-13.16},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.569,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-10.55},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.557,"actual":1.4034,"gap_pct":-9.87},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.512,"actual":1.28,"gap_pct":-15.34}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-11.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (+19% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.58 (+23% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.28},"values":{"2050":1.523,"2100":1.577},"low_2100":1.077}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +3.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.866,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":10.82},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":57.221,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":45},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.889,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":36.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":72.772,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":14.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":80.437,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":3.15},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":79.88,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":3.87},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":80.484,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":3.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":97.962,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":-15.3},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":91.536,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":-9.36},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":89.08,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":-6.86},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":88.681,"actual":82.9695,"gap_pct":-6.44},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":84.987,"actual":78.153,"gap_pct":-8.04}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":3.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (78.2k) already around 1999: reality is 26 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":78.153,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":1999,"years":26,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 78.2k, 5% below the UN 2024 medium variant (81.8k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":81.82,"actual_births_k":78.153,"gap_pct":-4.5,"un_lower95_births_k":71.67,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=CH"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 81.6k (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 76.9k (−2% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 33.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":78.153},"values":{"2050":81.64,"2100":76.91},"low_2100":33.63}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CHE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}