{"locations":[{"code":"CAN","name":"Canada","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CAN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.37 in 1950 → 1.26 in 2025 (−63%). Peak: 3.86 in 1959; the latest value is 67% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1972, below 1.5 since 2019. The trend broke around 1960 and 1973: +0.05 → −0.17 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.374,"last":1.26,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":3.855},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1972,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.0487,"slope_after":-0.169},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.169,"slope_after":-0.00537}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 359k in 1950 → 373k in 2025 (+4%). Peak: 464k in 1959; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1967: +10.1k → −20.7k → +0.28k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":359.1,"last":372.521,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":463.5},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":10.1,"slope_after":-20.7},{"year":1967,"slope_before":-20.7,"slope_after":0.278}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.4% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2000, above 90% since 2015. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 6.8% → 60.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.361,"last":94.3533,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":6.76,"end":60.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 69% in 1960 → 82.9% in 2025 (+14 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1969. The trend broke around 1969 and 1982: +0.76 → −0.02 → +0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":69.0418,"last":82.8757,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.76,"slope_after":-0.0199},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.0199,"slope_after":0.174}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 40,475 PPP dollars in 1990 → 57,990 PPP dollars in 2025 (+43%). Low: 39,023 PPP dollars in 1992; +49% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2003: +469 → +1,358 → +321 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":40475.0964,"last":57989.5785,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":39023.1668},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":469,"slope_after":1360},{"year":2003,"slope_before":1360,"slope_after":321}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 3.68 → 1.94. Over the same years: births 453k → 337k; urban share 70.4% → 76%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":3.678,"end":1.938,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":452.8,"end":336.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":70.4488,"end":76.0211},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.60 → 1.26; births 385k → 373k; internet 90% → 94.4%; urban share 81.2% → 82.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 55,661 PPP dollars → 57,990 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.601,"end":1.26,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":384.6,"end":372.521},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":90,"end":94.3533},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":81.2466,"end":82.8757},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":55660.8456,"end":57989.5785}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.74); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.86). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.737,"r_changes":0.864,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.57); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.11).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.566,"r_changes":-0.112,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.46). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.807,"r_changes":-0.46,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.621,"r_changes":0.101,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.855,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-27.32},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.738,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-22.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.547,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-12.84},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.613,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-16.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.602,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-15.84},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.715,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-21.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.763,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-23.52},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.737,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-22.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.555,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-13.29},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.557,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-13.4},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.484,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-9.14},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.481,"actual":1.26,"gap_pct":-14.92}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-16.13,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.39 (+10% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.49 (+19% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.99.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.26},"values":{"2050":1.389,"2100":1.494},"low_2100":0.994}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −6.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":424.436,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-14.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":388.899,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-6.66},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":352.531,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":2.97},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":385.85,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-5.92},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":378.413,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-4.07},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":412.597,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-12.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":421.328,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-13.84},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":425.336,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-14.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":390.029,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-6.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":392.04,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-7.4},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":388.124,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-6.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":387.306,"actual":372.521,"gap_pct":-3.82}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.79,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 373k, 3% above the UN 2024 medium variant (361k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":361.1,"actual_births_k":372.521,"gap_pct":3.2,"un_lower95_births_k":293.9,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistics Canada tables 13-10-0414-01 and 13-10-0418-01","source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310041401"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 380k (+2% vs 2025), 2100 — 452k (+21% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 207k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":372.521},"values":{"2050":380.3,"2100":451.8},"low_2100":207.1}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CAN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}