{"locations":[{"code":"CAF","name":"Central African Republic","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/CAF/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.93 in 1950 → 6.01 in 2023 (+1%). The trend broke around 1987 and 2001: +0.01 → −0.02 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.93,"last":6.012,"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.0056,"slope_after":-0.0213},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0213,"slope_after":0.0151}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 65.2k in 1950 → 239k in 2023 (×3.7).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":65.22,"last":238.9}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 13.8% in 2024 (+14 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2022. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 4% → 13.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":13.7825,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":4,"end":13.7536}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 20.1% in 1960 → 44.6% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 1978 and 2012: +0.95 → +0.08 → +0.45 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":20.1234,"last":44.5532,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.953,"slope_after":0.0769},{"year":2012,"slope_before":0.0769,"slope_after":0.448}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,481 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,123 PPP dollars in 2025 (−24%). Peak: 1,578 PPP dollars in 2012; the latest value is 29% lower.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1481.2526,"last":1122.7608,"peak":{"year":2012,"value":1577.9805}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2004–2014: 5.78 → 6.10. Over the same years: births 174k → 206k; internet 0.2% → 2.7%; urban share 38% → 39.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,236 PPP dollars → 1,002 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":5.784,"end":6.099,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":174.2,"end":206.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":0.2234,"end":2.7},{"id":"urban_population","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":37.9627,"end":39.6227},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":1236.2853,"end":1001.856}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 6.08 → 6.01; births 207k → 239k; internet 2.5% → 13.8%; urban share 39.3% → 43.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 997 PPP dollars → 1,133 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.075,"end":6.012,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":207.3,"end":238.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.5,"end":13.8417},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.3043,"end":43.6984},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":996.8964,"end":1132.6764}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.08); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.079,"r_changes":0.089,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.50); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":0.495,"r_changes":-0.287,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.23).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.01,"r_changes":-0.229,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.31); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.314,"r_changes":-0.002,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +59%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.408,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":79.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.79,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":61.18},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.662,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":66.82},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.673,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":66.32},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.673,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":66.32},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.847,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":58.8},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.024,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":51.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.994,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":52.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.016,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":52.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.754,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":28.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":5.83,"actual":6.012,"gap_pct":3.12}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":58.8,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.36 (−44% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.03 (−66% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.53.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.012},"values":{"2050":3.362,"2100":2.027},"low_2100":1.527}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":150.217,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":40.9},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":166.245,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":27.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.179,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":38.18},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.993,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":37.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":165.121,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":28.18},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":157.932,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":34.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":167.322,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":26.5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":163.768,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":29.24},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":167.193,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":26.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":165.835,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":27.63},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":243.462,"actual":238.9,"gap_pct":-1.87}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":28.18,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (239k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":238.9,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (239k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":238.9,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 304k (+27% vs 2023), 2100 — 277k (+16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 141k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":238.9},"values":{"2050":304,"2100":276.6},"low_2100":141.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=CAF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}