{"locations":[{"code":"BWA","name":"Botswana","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BWA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.43 in 1950 → 2.73 in 2023 (−58%). The trend broke around 1978 and 1998: 0 → −0.17 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.429,"last":2.732,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.0029,"slope_after":-0.166},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.166,"slope_after":-0.0183}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 18.8k in 1950 → 61.3k in 2023 (×3.3). The trend broke around 1972 and 1978: +0.39k → +1.67k → +0.51k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":18.81,"last":61.29,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.393,"slope_after":1.67},{"year":1978,"slope_before":1.67,"slope_after":0.514}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 57.5% in 2024 (+57 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2012, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 6% → 38.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":57.4595,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":6,"end":38.8938}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 3% in 1960 → 68% in 2025 (+65 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1996. The trend broke around 1982 and 1991: +0.67 → +3.5 → +0.68 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":3.0018,"last":67.956,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1996,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.669,"slope_after":3.47},{"year":1991,"slope_before":3.47,"slope_after":0.685}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,521 PPP dollars in 1990 → 17,687 PPP dollars in 2025 (+68%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10520.9184,"last":17687.2042}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1981–1991: 6.16 → 4.37. Over the same years: births 42.2k → 44.1k; internet 0% (1991); urban share 15.8% → 45.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,002 PPP dollars (1991).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1981,"to":1991,"start":6.163,"end":4.365,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1981,"to":1991,"start":42.15,"end":44.05},{"id":"internet_users","year":1991,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1981,"to":1991,"start":15.8139,"end":45.5396},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1991,"value":11001.8014}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.05 → 2.73; births 58.2k → 61.3k; internet 30% → 57.9%; urban share 64.8% → 67%; GDP per person (PPP) 16,369 PPP dollars → 18,932 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.045,"end":2.732,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":58.19,"end":61.29},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2022,"start":30,"end":57.9},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.758,"end":67.0213},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16369.4253,"end":18932.4803}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.46). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.909,"r_changes":0.455,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2022, 30 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.59); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2022,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.591,"r_changes":-0.068,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.67). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.99,"r_changes":-0.671,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.863,"r_changes":-0.066,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.7,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":9.19},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.71,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":8.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.623,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":12.39},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.526,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":16.71},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.513,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":17.31},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.513,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":17.31},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.403,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":22.68},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.445,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":20.58},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.672,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":10.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.651,"actual":2.9481,"gap_pct":11.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.716,"actual":2.732,"gap_pct":0.59}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":12.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.73) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.732,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (2.73) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.732,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.08 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.732},"values":{"2050":2.079,"2100":1.781},"low_2100":1.281}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +24%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.354,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":15.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":43.699,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":35.81},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.804,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":41.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":39.88,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":48.81},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.721,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":24.36},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.3,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":22.87},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.127,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":28.66},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.215,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":25.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":54.748,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":8.4},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":52.787,"actual":59.346,"gap_pct":12.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":60.19,"actual":61.29,"gap_pct":1.83}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":24.36,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 55.4k (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 41.4k (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 16.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":61.29},"values":{"2050":55.37,"2100":41.37},"low_2100":16.58}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BWA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}