{"locations":[{"code":"BTN","name":"Bhutan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BTN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.85 in 1950 → 1.46 in 2023 (−79%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2012, below 1.5 since 2021. The trend broke around 1986 and 2003: −0.01 → −0.21 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.848,"last":1.462,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2012,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2021,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.0133,"slope_after":-0.208},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.208,"slope_after":-0.0795}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 8.36k in 1950 → 9.96k in 2023 (+19%). Peak: 22.6k in 1991; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1998: +0.39k → −0.89k → −0.25k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.355,"last":9.958,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":22.55},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.387,"slope_after":-0.891},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.891,"slope_after":-0.25}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 91.3% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2017, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 30.3% → 74.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":91.2774,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":30.3,"end":74.1794}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 2.5% in 1960 → 43.4% in 2025 (+41 pp). The trend broke around 1970: change sped up (+0.04 → +0.87 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":2.4827,"last":43.4302,"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0374,"slope_after":0.872}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,411 PPP dollars in 1990 → 16,744 PPP dollars in 2025 (×4.9). The trend broke around 2004 and 2015: +225 → +565 → +305 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3411.3838,"last":16743.8704,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":225,"slope_after":565},{"year":2015,"slope_before":565,"slope_after":305}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1991–2001: 5.45 → 3.19. Over the same years: births 22.6k → 14.6k; internet 0% → 0.9%; urban share 21% → 28.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,338 PPP dollars → 5,546 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":5.451,"end":3.188,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":22.55,"end":14.58},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2001,"start":0,"end":0.8646},{"id":"urban_population","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":20.9744,"end":28.2825},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":3338.0094,"end":5545.6306}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.00 → 1.46; births 12.4k → 9.96k; internet 22.4% → 90%; urban share 35.6% → 41.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,212 PPP dollars → 14,610 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2,"end":1.462,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12.38,"end":9.958},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.4,"end":90.0214},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.574,"end":41.7352},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11212.4794,"end":14610.2959}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.26); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.67). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.258,"r_changes":0.675,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 26 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.73); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.44).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":26,"r_levels":-0.731,"r_changes":-0.443,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.963,"r_changes":-0.211,"effective_pairs_changes":4,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.922,"r_changes":-0.268,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.9,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-59.01},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.9,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-59.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.395,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-52.92},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.065,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-47.85},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.02,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-20.87},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.201,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-27.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.028,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-21.18},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.065,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-22.59},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.926,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-17},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.015,"actual":1.5985,"gap_pct":-20.67},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.39,"actual":1.462,"gap_pct":5.18}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-22.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (1.46, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.462,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (1.46, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.462,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.46 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+5% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.462},"values":{"2050":1.46,"2100":1.533},"low_2100":1.033}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":96.552,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-89.32},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":96.82,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-89.35},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":85.978,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":71.867,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-85.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.838,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-25.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.304,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-32.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.194,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-27.32},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.285,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-27.79},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.458,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-23.35},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.449,"actual":10.3157,"gap_pct":-28.61},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":9.634,"actual":9.958,"gap_pct":3.36}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-28.61,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (9.96k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":9.958,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (9.96k, 2023) only around 2062: reality is 39 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":9.958,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2062,"years":39,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 7.71k (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 5.46k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.84k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":9.958},"values":{"2050":7.713,"2100":5.456},"low_2100":1.841}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BTN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}