{"locations":[{"code":"BRN","name":"Brunei","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BRN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.98 in 1950 → 1.75 in 2023 (−75%). Peak: 7.48 in 1957; the latest value is 77% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2005. The trend broke around 1959 and 1986: +0.06 → −0.16 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.977,"last":1.747,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":7.476},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2005,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.0587,"slope_after":-0.159},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.159,"slope_after":-0.0483}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.35k in 1950 → 6.24k in 2023 (×2.7). Peak: 7.28k in 1991; the latest value is 14% lower. The trend broke around 1991 and 2003: +0.11k → −0.07k → +0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.348,"last":6.237,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":7.276},"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":0.109,"slope_after":-0.0743},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.0743,"slope_after":0.0201}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 96.3% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2010, above 90% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 60.3% → 94.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":96.2983,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":60.2731,"end":94.8667}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 43.3% in 1960 → 75% in 2025 (+32 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1964, above 75% since 2025. The trend broke around 1970 and 1978: +2.1 → −0.48 → +0.39 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":43.3471,"last":75.011,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1964,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2025,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":2.09,"slope_after":-0.479},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.479,"slope_after":0.386}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 118,164 PPP dollars in 1990 → 78,985 PPP dollars in 2025 (−33%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":118163.6834,"last":78985.122}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 6.20 → 4.39. Over the same years: births 4.49k → 5.52k; urban share 60.8% → 60.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":6.204,"end":4.389,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":4.489,"end":5.521},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":60.8404,"end":60.3815},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.98 → 1.75; births 6.96k → 6.24k; internet 64.5% → 99%; urban share 75.2% → 74.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 86,607 PPP dollars → 76,617 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.978,"end":1.747,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.955,"end":6.237},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.5,"end":98.9704},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":75.1757,"end":74.8199},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":86606.6519,"end":76616.7015}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.37). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.897,"r_changes":0.368,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.842,"r_changes":-0.08,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.54). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.919,"r_changes":0.541,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.876,"r_changes":-0.105,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-11.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-11.1},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.889,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-1.17},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.952,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-4.36},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.952,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-4.36},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.853,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":0.75},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.877,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-0.54},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.915,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":-2.51},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.819,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":2.63},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.848,"actual":1.8669,"gap_pct":1.02},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.747,"actual":1.747,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-1.17,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (1.75, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.747,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.75, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.747,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.61 (−8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.64 (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.14.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.747},"values":{"2050":1.614,"2100":1.635},"low_2100":1.135}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −5.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.005,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-5.8},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.969,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-5.31},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.134,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-18.88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.342,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-20.9},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.343,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-20.91},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.901,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-16.48},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.42,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-11.07},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.283,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":5.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.489,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":1.69},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.627,"actual":6.5987,"gap_pct":-0.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":5.962,"actual":6.237,"gap_pct":4.61}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-5.8,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (6.24k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.237,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (6.24k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.237,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.28k (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 4.1k (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.62k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.237},"values":{"2050":5.281,"2100":4.099},"low_2100":1.623}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BRN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}