{"locations":[{"code":"BRB","name":"Barbados","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BRB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.47 in 1950 → 1.71 in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 4.71 in 1960; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1978. The trend broke around 1964 and 1979: −0.02 → −0.17 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.473,"last":1.708,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":4.706},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1978,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":-0.0168,"slope_after":-0.165},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.165,"slope_after":-0.0014}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 7.27k in 1950 → 3.16k in 2023 (−57%). Peak: 8.08k in 1960; the latest value is 61% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1978: +0.02k → −0.26k → −0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.272,"last":3.155,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":8.078},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0173,"slope_after":-0.257},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.257,"slope_after":-0.0251}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 70.4% in 2024 (+70 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2005. Fastest growth in 2000–2005: 4% → 52.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":70.3647,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2005,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2000,"to":2005,"start":3.9737,"end":52.5}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 40.4% in 1960 → 59.7% in 2025 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1973. The trend broke around 1970 and 1979: +0.45 → +2.2 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":40.4304,"last":59.6996,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1973,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.451,"slope_after":2.2},{"year":1979,"slope_before":2.2,"slope_after":-0.128}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 19,196 PPP dollars in 1990 → 22,127 PPP dollars in 2025 (+15%). Low: 16,400 PPP dollars in 2020; +35% since then. The trend broke around 2007 and 2016: +331 → −469 → +261 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":19195.8871,"last":22127.3605,"trough":{"year":2020,"value":16399.702},"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":331,"slope_after":-469},{"year":2016,"slope_before":-469,"slope_after":261}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 4.14 → 2.24. Over the same years: births 7.66k → 4.66k; urban share 42.6% → 58.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":4.144,"end":2.241,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":7.656,"end":4.663},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":42.603,"end":58.1008},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.73 → 1.71; births 3.34k → 3.16k; internet 71.8% → 69.7%; urban share 59.2% → 59.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 19,730 PPP dollars → 20,865 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.729,"end":1.708,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.34,"end":3.155},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":71.8,"end":69.6751},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":59.2385,"end":59.4236},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19730.347,"end":20865.0155}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.99). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.983,"r_changes":0.989,"effective_pairs_changes":43,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.23); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.42). Changes line up best with a 3 years shift: \"Fertility (TFR)\" moves first, then \"Internet\" (r = 0.72).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.235,"r_changes":-0.42,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":3,"r":0.72,"leader":"tfr"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.27).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.961,"r_changes":-0.269,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.15); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.154,"r_changes":0.016,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.71,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":0.58},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.66,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":3.61},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.59,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":8.18},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.61,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":6.83},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.575,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":9.21},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.625,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":5.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.619,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":6.24},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.862,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":-7.63},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.801,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":-4.5},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.799,"actual":1.72,"gap_pct":-4.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.627,"actual":1.708,"gap_pct":4.98}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":4.98,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.71) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.708,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected today's level (1.71, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.708,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.68 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.66 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.16.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.708},"values":{"2050":1.678,"2100":1.656},"low_2100":1.156}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +6.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.249,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":-0.08},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.998,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":8.28},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.872,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":13.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.898,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":12.02},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.042,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":6.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.746,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":18.22},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.972,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":9.23},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.597,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":-9.75},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.377,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":-3.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.367,"actual":3.2463,"gap_pct":-3.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.011,"actual":3.155,"gap_pct":4.78}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":6.72,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (3.16k) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.155,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.48k (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.59k (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.155},"values":{"2050":2.479,"2100":1.585},"low_2100":0.5}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BRB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}