{"locations":[{"code":"BRA","name":"Brazil","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BRA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.12 in 1950 → 1.62 in 2023 (−74%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2002. The trend broke around 1960 and 1997: 0 → −0.1 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.122,"last":1.619,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2002,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":-0.00413,"slope_after":-0.103},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.103,"slope_after":-0.0272}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.48M in 1950 → 2.38M in 2024 (−4%). Peak: 4M in 1983; the latest value is 41% lower. The trend broke around 1958 and 1984: +72.5k → +35k → −35.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2477,"last":2376.901,"peak":{"year":1983,"value":3998},"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":72.5,"slope_after":35},{"year":1984,"slope_before":35,"slope_after":-35.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 84.5% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2001–2006: 4.5% → 28.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":84.4635,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2001,"to":2006,"start":4.5285,"end":28.1784}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44.7% in 1960 → 88.2% in 2025 (+43 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1967, above 75% since 1991. The trend broke around 1984 and 2002: +1.2 → +0.62 → +0.26 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.681,"last":88.1773,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1967,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1991,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":1.17,"slope_after":0.618},{"year":2002,"slope_before":0.618,"slope_after":0.262}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,633 PPP dollars in 1990 → 20,025 PPP dollars in 2025 (+59%). The trend broke around 2003 and 2011: +146 → +489 → +36 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12633.2885,"last":20024.6968,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":146,"slope_after":489},{"year":2011,"slope_before":489,"slope_after":35.5}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 5.82 → 4.50. Over the same years: births 3.34M → 3.54M; urban share 47.9% → 58.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":5.818,"end":4.502,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":3341,"end":3540},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":47.8711,"end":58.7085},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.76 → 1.62; births 2.94M → 2.6M; internet 51% → 84.2%; urban share 85.2% → 87.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 19,242 PPP dollars → 19,080 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.761,"end":1.619,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2935,"end":2602},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":51.04,"end":84.1506},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":85.1677,"end":87.616},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19241.506,"end":19079.8122}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.61). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.009,"r_changes":0.609,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.87,"r_changes":-0.026,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.995,"r_changes":0.012,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.916,"r_changes":0.279,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −1.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-17.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-17.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.909,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-9.57},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.059,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-16.15},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.059,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-16.15},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.6,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":7.9},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.716,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":0.61},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.75,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-1.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.744,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":-1.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.705,"actual":1.7264,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.621,"actual":1.619,"gap_pct":-0.12}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-1.35,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (1.62, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.619,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (1.62, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.619,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.56 (−4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.58 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.619},"values":{"2050":1.559,"2100":1.577},"low_2100":1.077}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −8.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3352.014,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-14.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3356.023,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-14.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3112.141,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-8.08},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3445.247,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-16.97},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3447.393,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-17.02},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2666.873,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":7.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2849.163,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":0.4},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2910.91,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-1.72},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2957.373,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-3.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2895.742,"actual":2860.7,"gap_pct":-1.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":2676.826,"actual":2376.901,"gap_pct":-11.2}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-8.08,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (2.38M, 2024) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":2376.901,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.38M, 2024) only around 2040: reality is 16 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":2376.901,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2040,"years":16,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 2.38M, 8% below the UN 2024 medium variant (2.57M).","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":2572,"actual_births_k":2376.901,"gap_pct":-7.6,"un_lower95_births_k":2176,"below_lower95":false,"source":"IBGE, Estatisticas do Registro Civil 2024 (presentation)","source_url":"https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/media/com_mediaibge/arquivos/031ad256f70356ed66b25e4ff01767cc.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.99M (−16% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.27M (−47% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 415k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":2376.901},"values":{"2050":1994,"2100":1268},"low_2100":415.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BRA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}