{"locations":[{"code":"BOL","name":"Bolivia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BOL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.19 in 1950 → 2.55 in 2023 (−59%). The trend broke around 1963 and 1979: +0.01 → −0.04 → −0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.191,"last":2.547,"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.00709,"slope_after":-0.0435},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0435,"slope_after":-0.0739}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 133k in 1950 → 260k in 2023 (+96%). The trend broke around 1990: change slowed down (+2.88k → +0.11k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":133,"last":260.2,"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":2.88,"slope_after":0.113}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 79.7% in 2024 (+80 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 44.3% → 77.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":79.7047,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":44.2861,"end":77.3004}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 36.9% in 1960 → 71.6% in 2025 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1985. The trend broke around 1977 and 1993: +0.26 → +1.1 → +0.41 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":36.894,"last":71.5631,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1985,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.261,"slope_after":1.12},{"year":1993,"slope_before":1.12,"slope_after":0.414}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,247 PPP dollars in 1990 → 11,001 PPP dollars in 2025 (+76%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2017: +112 → +324 → −71 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6247.1045,"last":11000.5345,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":112,"slope_after":324},{"year":2017,"slope_before":324,"slope_after":-71}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1991–2001: 4.85 → 3.89. Over the same years: births 260k → 255k; internet 0% → 2.1%; urban share 56.8% → 62.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,440 PPP dollars → 7,491 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":4.846,"end":3.89,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":259.8,"end":254.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2001,"start":0,"end":2.1205},{"id":"urban_population","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":56.8261,"end":62.3375},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":6440.4857,"end":7491.1526}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.01 → 2.55; births 261k → 260k; internet 37% → 77.3%; urban share 67.7% → 70.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,391 PPP dollars → 11,616 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.01,"end":2.547,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":261.1,"end":260.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":36.99,"end":77.3004},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":67.6697,"end":70.9151},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10391.3834,"end":11616.1576}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.41).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.835,"r_changes":0.414,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.891,"r_changes":-0.027,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.982,"r_changes":-0.305,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.953,"r_changes":-0.041,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.786,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":-0.99},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.786,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":-0.99},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.754,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":0.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.747,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.747,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.747,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.997,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":-7.96},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.038,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":-9.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.831,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":-2.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.825,"actual":2.7585,"gap_pct":-2.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.547,"actual":2.547,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.99,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.55) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.547,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.55, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.547,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.06 (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.79 (−30% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.29.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.547},"values":{"2050":2.06,"2100":1.791},"low_2100":1.291}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +1.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":269.322,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":-3.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":269.321,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":-3.47},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":257.103,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":1.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":253.286,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":2.64},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":253.286,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":2.64},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":253.286,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":2.64},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":271.22,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":-4.14},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":281.502,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":-7.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":255.608,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":1.71},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":254.606,"actual":259.98,"gap_pct":2.11},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":263.936,"actual":260.2,"gap_pct":-1.42}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":1.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (260k) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":260.2,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 246k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 193k (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 78.2k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":260.2},"values":{"2050":246.1,"2100":193},"low_2100":78.16}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BOL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}