{"locations":[{"code":"BMU","name":"Bermuda","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BMU/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.62 in 1950 → 1.40 in 2023 (−61%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1974, below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: 0 → −0.13 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.617,"last":1.401,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1974,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.00209,"slope_after":-0.132},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.132,"slope_after":-0.00703}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.15k in 1950 → 0.52k in 2023 (−54%). The trend broke around 1979 and 1991: −0.01k → +0.01k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.145,"last":0.521,"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0147,"slope_after":0.00812},{"year":1991,"slope_before":0.00812,"slope_after":-0.0109}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98.4% in 2017 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1996, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2012. Fastest growth in 1995–2000: 6.8% → 42.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":98.37,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1996,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1995,"to":2000,"start":6.84,"end":42.9499}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 99.7% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+0.3 pp). The trend broke around 1966: direction reversed (+0.02 → 0 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":99.6607,"last":100,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.0242,"slope_after":-0.000199}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 79,751 PPP dollars in 1990 → 104,300 PPP dollars in 2024 (+31%). Peak: 118,696 PPP dollars in 2007; the latest value is 12% lower. The trend broke around 2007 and 2014: +2,699 → −3,482 → +799 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":79750.8568,"last":104299.9444,"peak":{"year":2007,"value":118696.0921},"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":2700,"slope_after":-3480},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-3480,"slope_after":799}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 3.48 → 2.14. Over the same years: births 1.11k → 0.87k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":3.476,"end":2.143,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":1.114,"end":0.866},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.52 → 1.40; births 0.6k → 0.52k; internet 95.3% (2013); urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 96,554 PPP dollars → 102,269 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.522,"end":1.401,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.597,"end":0.521},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":95.3},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":96553.8727,"end":102268.9228}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.85). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.923,"r_changes":0.851,"effective_pairs_changes":61,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 24 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.44); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.06).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":24,"r_levels":-0.442,"r_changes":-0.062,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.39); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.385,"r_changes":0.087,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.25); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.247,"r_changes":0.291,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.372,"actual":1.401,"gap_pct":2.11}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":2.11,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.47 (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.401},"values":{"2050":1.47,"2100":1.532},"low_2100":1.032}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.469,"actual":0.521,"gap_pct":11.09}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":11.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.4k (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.24k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.08k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.521},"values":{"2050":0.401,"2100":0.242},"low_2100":0.075}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BMU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}