{"locations":[{"code":"BLZ","name":"Belize","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BLZ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.69 in 1950 → 2.01 in 2023 (−70%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2020. The trend broke around 1977 and 1996: −0.02 → −0.12 → −0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.69,"last":2.007,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.0188,"slope_after":-0.124},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.124,"slope_after":-0.0744}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.65k in 1950 → 7.41k in 2023 (+103%). The trend broke around 1968 and 1981: +0.04k → +0.15k → +0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.651,"last":7.41,"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.0353,"slope_after":0.153},{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.153,"slope_after":0.0329}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 80% in 2024 (+80 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 44.6% → 70.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":80.0058,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":44.5757,"end":70.6537}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 53.9% in 1960 → 41.6% in 2025 (−12 pp). Threshold: below 50% since 1984. The trend broke around 1973 and 1986: +0.02 → −0.39 → −0.18 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":53.8851,"last":41.5621,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1984,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.0171,"slope_after":-0.388},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.388,"slope_after":-0.177}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,252 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,789 PPP dollars in 2025 (+55%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2019: +252 → −115 → +257 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8251.6176,"last":12788.8424,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":252,"slope_after":-115},{"year":2019,"slope_before":-115,"slope_after":257}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1976–1986: 6.25 → 4.94. Over the same years: births 5.56k → 6.31k; urban share 53% → 48.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":6.25,"end":4.937,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":5.559,"end":6.307},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":52.9944,"end":48.7515},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.50 → 2.01; births 7.54k → 7.41k; internet 33.6% → 70.2%; urban share 44.4% → 41.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,065 PPP dollars → 12,371 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.498,"end":2.007,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7.535,"end":7.41},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":33.6,"end":70.1872},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":44.4381,"end":41.9459},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12064.7973,"end":12371.0087}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.69). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.904,"r_changes":0.694,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.51). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.926,"r_changes":-0.506,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.974,"r_changes":0.17,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.69); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.687,"r_changes":-0.082,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −4.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":9.39},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":9.39},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.28,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":0.75},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.331,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-1.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.409,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-4.65},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.409,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-4.65},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.477,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-7.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.517,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-8.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.462,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-6.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.459,"actual":2.2971,"gap_pct":-6.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.98,"actual":2.007,"gap_pct":1.36}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-4.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (2.01, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.007,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.01, 2023) only around 2032: reality is 9 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.007,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2032,"years":9,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.78 (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.69 (−16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.19.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.007},"values":{"2050":1.777,"2100":1.69},"low_2100":1.19}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.316,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":22.52},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.565,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":39.05},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.537,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":18.37},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.831,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":13.28},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.294,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":6.09},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.552,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":2.46},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.118,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":-4.68},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.986,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":-3.1},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.422,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":-8.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.409,"actual":7.7381,"gap_pct":-7.98},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7.236,"actual":7.41,"gap_pct":2.4}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.91k (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.44k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":7.41},"values":{"2050":5.907,"2100":3.435},"low_2100":1.012}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BLZ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}