{"locations":[{"code":"BLR","name":"Belarus","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BLR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.64 in 1950 → 1.21 in 2023 (−54%). Peak: 2.76 in 1959; the latest value is 56% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1987, below 1.5 since 2018. The trend broke around 1990 and 1996: −0.02 → −0.1 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.64,"last":1.208,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":2.763},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1987,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.021,"slope_after":-0.104},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.104,"slope_after":0.00993}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 164k in 1950 → 54.3k in 2025 (−67%). Peak: 208k in 1960; the latest value is 74% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: −0.89k → −7.81k → −0.45k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":163.6,"last":54.257,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":207.5},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.895,"slope_after":-7.81},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-7.81,"slope_after":-0.445}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.3% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2013, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 27.4% → 59%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":94.2618,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":27.43,"end":59.0163}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 32.7% in 1960 → 79.5% in 2025 (+47 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1975, above 75% since 2011. The trend broke around 1987: change slowed down (+1.2 → +0.43 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":32.663,"last":79.4946,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1975,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":1.2,"slope_after":0.427}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,352 PPP dollars in 1990 → 29,666 PPP dollars in 2025 (+140%). Low: 8,061 PPP dollars in 1995; ×3.7 since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2011: −689 → +1,233 → +268 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12351.6357,"last":29666.2116,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":8061.196},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-689,"slope_after":1230},{"year":2011,"slope_before":1230,"slope_after":268}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 2.06 → 1.22. Over the same years: births 161k → 87.7k; internet 0% (1997); urban share 63.8% → 68.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,301 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":2.055,"end":1.223,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":160.8,"end":87.72},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.049},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":63.8253,"end":68.6146},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":9301.3272}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.67 → 1.21; births 118k → 65.1k; internet 54.2% → 91.5%; urban share 75.9% → 78.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 26,148 PPP dollars → 27,782 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.673,"end":1.208,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":118.2,"end":65.05},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.17,"end":91.5125},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":75.9497,"end":78.8146},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":26147.6254,"end":27782.438}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.958,"r_changes":0.921,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.23); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.47).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":0.232,"r_changes":0.473,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.88,"r_changes":0.38,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.25); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.38). Changes line up best with a 2 years shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.74).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.249,"r_changes":0.383,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-2,"r":0.738,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.61,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":-4.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.365,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":12.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.32,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":16.23},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.325,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":15.8},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.279,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":19.96},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.312,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":16.94},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.56,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":-1.65},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.541,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":-0.43},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.644,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":-6.67},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.706,"actual":1.5343,"gap_pct":-10.06},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.508,"actual":1.208,"gap_pct":-19.89}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.43,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (1.21) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.208,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.38 (+14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.49 (+23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.99.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.208},"values":{"2050":1.383,"2100":1.486},"low_2100":0.987}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90.911,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-23.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.393,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-15.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.389,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-6.87},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.077,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-6.48},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":71.956,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-3.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.578,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-10.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":92.302,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-24.94},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":87.961,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-21.24},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":99.595,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-30.44},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":102.45,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-32.38},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":102.584,"actual":69.2803,"gap_pct":-32.46},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":82.81,"actual":54.257,"gap_pct":-34.48}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-22.52,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (54.3k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":54.257,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection did not expect today's level (54.3k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":54.257,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 54.3k, 13% below the UN 2024 medium variant (62.3k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":62.33,"actual_births_k":54.257,"gap_pct":-13,"un_lower95_births_k":48.96,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Belstat, Regions of the Republic of Belarus 2026 vol. 1, table 3.16 (registered 30 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://www.belstat.gov.by/upload/iblock/580/ak5bwg5igfux0yggz5orfuqi5lvyhywm.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 58.4k (+8% vs 2025), 2100 — 29.1k (−46% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 7.77k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":54.257},"values":{"2050":58.43,"2100":29.06},"low_2100":7.766}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BLR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}