{"locations":[{"code":"BLM","name":"Saint Barthélemy","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BLM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.22 in 1950 → 0.80 in 2023 (−75%). Low: 0.71 in 2018; +13% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1970, below 1.5 since 2005, below 1.0 since 2016. The trend broke around 1978 and 2006: −0.07 → 0 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.221,"last":0.801,"trough":{"year":2018,"value":0.706},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1970,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2005,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0672,"slope_after":-0.00279},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.00279,"slope_after":-0.0463}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.05k in 1950 → 0.05k in 2023 (+8%). Peak: 0.09k in 1989; the latest value is 41% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 1988: 0k → +0.01k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.049,"last":0.053,"peak":{"year":1989,"value":0.09},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.000367,"slope_after":0.00645},{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.00645,"slope_after":-0.000945}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 2.29 → 1.41. Over the same years: births 0.06k → 0.04k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":2.288,"end":1.405,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":0.056,"end":0.037}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.09 → 0.80; births 0.08k → 0.05k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.09,"end":0.801,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.075,"end":0.053}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.43); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.71). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.433,"r_changes":0.71,"effective_pairs_changes":40,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −22%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.031,"actual":0.801,"gap_pct":-22.31}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-22.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.07 (+34% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.31 (+64% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.81.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.801},"values":{"2050":1.07,"2100":1.314},"low_2100":0.814}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −42%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.091,"actual":0.053,"gap_pct":-41.76}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-41.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.09k (+72% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.05k (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.053},"values":{"2050":0.091,"2100":0.05},"low_2100":0.014}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BLM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}