{"locations":[{"code":"BHS","name":"Bahamas","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BHS/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.52 in 1950 → 1.37 in 2023 (−70%). Peak: 5.16 in 1961; the latest value is 73% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2000, below 1.5 since 2016. The trend broke around 1963 and 1979: +0.05 → −0.15 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.517,"last":1.373,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":5.156},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2000,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.0514,"slope_after":-0.145},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.145,"slope_after":-0.035}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.07k in 1950 → 4.34k in 2023 (+41%). Peak: 6.85k in 1992; the latest value is 37% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1996: +0.16k → +0.02k → −0.07k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.068,"last":4.335,"peak":{"year":1992,"value":6.845},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.16,"slope_after":0.0248},{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.0248,"slope_after":-0.066}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92.5% in 2024 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 27% → 71.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":92.4727,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":27,"end":71.7482}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 57.6% in 1960 → 81.3% in 2025 (+24 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1983. The trend broke around 1988 and 2011: +0.84 → +0.11 → −0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":57.6003,"last":81.3309,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1983,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.839,"slope_after":0.115},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.115,"slope_after":-0.0933}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 33,072 PPP dollars in 1990 → 36,244 PPP dollars in 2024 (+10%). Low: 26,453 PPP dollars in 2020; +37% since then. The trend broke around 2005 and 2018: +392 → −317 → +590 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":33072.1596,"last":36244.05,"trough":{"year":2020,"value":26452.6958},"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":392,"slope_after":-317},{"year":2018,"slope_before":-317,"slope_after":590}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 4.69 → 3.17. Over the same years: births 5.66k → 5.32k; urban share 61.9% → 70.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":4.689,"end":3.167,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.657,"end":5.324},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":61.8521,"end":70.6279},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.74 → 1.37; births 5.27k → 4.34k; internet 72% → 92.4%; urban share 82.4% → 81.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 32,403 PPP dollars → 35,221 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.738,"end":1.373,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.268,"end":4.335},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":72,"end":92.3873},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":82.3636,"end":81.3214},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":32402.9164,"end":35221.2697}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.35); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.68). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.353,"r_changes":0.684,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.957,"r_changes":-0.195,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.26). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.969,"r_changes":-0.261,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.26); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.257,"r_changes":-0.183,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −24%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-31.43},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-31.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.993,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-27.75},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.022,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-28.78},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.883,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-23.53},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.883,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-23.53},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.845,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-21.95},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.869,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-22.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.831,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-21.35},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.755,"actual":1.44,"gap_pct":-17.95},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.374,"actual":1.373,"gap_pct":-0.07}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-23.53,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.51 (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.01.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.373},"values":{"2050":1.409,"2100":1.508},"low_2100":1.008}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.164,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-26.74},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.033,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-25.15},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.62,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-19.64},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.999,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-24.72},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.594,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-19.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.612,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-19.53},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.38,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-16.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.922,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-23.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.822,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-22.43},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.581,"actual":4.516,"gap_pct":-19.08},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.671,"actual":4.335,"gap_pct":-7.19}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-19.64,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (4.34k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.335,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (4.34k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.335,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.77k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.36k (−22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.335},"values":{"2050":3.771,"2100":3.363},"low_2100":1.335}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BHS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}