{"locations":[{"code":"BGD","name":"Bangladesh","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BGD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.37 in 1950 → 2.16 in 2023 (−66%). Peak: 6.84 in 1970; the latest value is 68% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 1996: +0.01 → −0.18 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.374,"last":2.163,"peak":{"year":1970,"value":6.839},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0149,"slope_after":-0.183},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.183,"slope_after":-0.0562}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.91M in 1950 → 3.49M in 2023 (+83%). Peak: 4.08M in 1984; the latest value is 15% lower. The trend broke around 1982 and 2017: +72.4k → −24.5k → +32.6k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1911,"last":3490,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":4082},"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":72.4,"slope_after":-24.5},{"year":2017,"slope_before":-24.5,"slope_after":32.6}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 53.4% in 2024 (+53 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2015, above 50% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 12.4% → 36.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":53.4217,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":12.3688,"end":36.1091}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 5.1% in 1960 → 33.2% in 2025 (+28 pp). The trend broke around 1973 and 1983: +0.25 → +0.89 → +0.39 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":5.1122,"last":33.2396,"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.247,"slope_after":0.886},{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.886,"slope_after":0.386}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,070 PPP dollars in 1990 → 8,677 PPP dollars in 2025 (×4.2). The trend broke around 2004 and 2014: +70 → +200 → +348 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2069.7823,"last":8676.7558,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":70,"slope_after":200},{"year":2014,"slope_before":200,"slope_after":348}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1982–1992: 6.12 → 4.03. Over the same years: births 4.08M → 3.76M; urban share 16% → 20.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,174 PPP dollars (1992); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":6.118,"end":4.027,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":4080,"end":3757},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":16.0068,"end":20.6483},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1992,"value":2174.3823}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.25 → 2.16; births 3.22M → 3.49M; internet 6.6% → 44.5%; urban share 28.8% → 32.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,823 PPP dollars → 8,242 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.247,"end":2.163,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3217,"end":3490},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.63,"end":44.5027},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28.8407,"end":32.1578},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4822.7262,"end":8242.398}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.36); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.63). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.363,"r_changes":0.627,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.62,"r_changes":0.48,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.33). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.973,"r_changes":-0.325,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.837,"r_changes":-0.154,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +4.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":4.82},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.6,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":-15.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.497,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":-11.85},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.549,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":-13.64},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.465,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":-10.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.103,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":4.67},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.982,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":11.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.047,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":7.53},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.076,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":6.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.067,"actual":2.2012,"gap_pct":6.49},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.936,"actual":2.163,"gap_pct":11.73}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":4.82,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (2.16, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.163,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.16) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.163,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.81 (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−20% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.163},"values":{"2050":1.806,"2100":1.723},"low_2100":1.223}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +6.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2946.841,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":11.29},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4181.325,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":-21.57},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4064.677,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":-19.31},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3779.818,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":-13.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3988.328,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":-17.77},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3330.985,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":-1.54},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2874.342,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":14.1},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3041.964,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":7.81},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3087.626,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":6.22},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3057.197,"actual":3279.6,"gap_pct":7.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2987.615,"actual":3490,"gap_pct":16.82}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":6.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (3.49M, 2023) only around 2043: reality is 20 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3490,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2043,"years":20,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.73M (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.8M (−48% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 610k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3490},"values":{"2050":2730,"2100":1799},"low_2100":610.4}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BGD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}