{"locations":[{"code":"BFA","name":"Burkina Faso","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BFA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.82 in 1950 → 4.19 in 2023 (−28%). Peak: 7.26 in 1981; the latest value is 42% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 2013: +0.05 → −0.05 → −0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.822,"last":4.186,"peak":{"year":1981,"value":7.256},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.0451,"slope_after":-0.0538},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-0.0538,"slope_after":-0.171}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 183k in 1950 → 729k in 2023 (×4). The trend broke around 1988 and 2015: +5.96k → +13.5k → −5.77k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":182.7,"last":728.6,"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":5.96,"slope_after":13.5},{"year":2015,"slope_before":13.5,"slope_after":-5.77}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 28.3% in 2024 (+28 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 9.3% → 28.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":28.2527,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":9.2718,"end":28.2527}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 5% in 1960 → 28.9% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 1977 and 2011: +0.1 → +0.52 → +0.28 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":5.0357,"last":28.9226,"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0983,"slope_after":0.52},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.52,"slope_after":0.283}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,108 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,625 PPP dollars in 2025 (+137%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1107.8559,"last":2624.8286}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 5.79 → 4.28. Over the same years: births 726k → 721k; internet 3.7% → 25.4%; urban share 24.8% → 27.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,004 PPP dollars → 2,469 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":5.793,"end":4.275,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":726,"end":721.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":3.725,"end":25.3988},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":24.8002,"end":27.2791},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":2003.6646,"end":2469.1996}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.75). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.54,"r_changes":0.755,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 2 years shift: \"Fertility (TFR)\" moves first, then \"Internet\" (r = −0.67).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.912,"r_changes":0.204,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":2,"r":-0.666,"leader":"tfr"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.748,"r_changes":0.315,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.976,"r_changes":0.013,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −4.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.47,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":12.13},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.69,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-11.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.639,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-11.11},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.497,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-8.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.088,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-1.49},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.064,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-1.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.53,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-9.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.217,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-3.92},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.235,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-4.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.231,"actual":5.0124,"gap_pct":-4.18},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.566,"actual":4.186,"gap_pct":-8.32}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-4.25,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.19) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.186,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.19, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.186,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.61 (−38% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.95 (−53% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.45.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.186},"values":{"2050":2.611,"2100":1.954},"low_2100":1.454}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −5.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":715.564,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":3.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":825.211,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-10.66},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":835.576,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-11.77},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":781.595,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-5.68},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":757.91,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-2.73},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":799.53,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-7.79},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":839.221,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-12.16},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":740.617,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-0.46},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":748.462,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-1.5},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":744.932,"actual":737.21,"gap_pct":-1.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":801.037,"actual":728.6,"gap_pct":-9.04}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-5.68,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (729k) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":728.6,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (729k) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":728.6,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 802k (+10% vs 2023), 2100 — 667k (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 309k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":728.6},"values":{"2050":801.7,"2100":667.3},"low_2100":308.7}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BFA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}