{"locations":[{"code":"BES","name":"Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BES/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.71 in 1950 → 1.47 in 2023 (−74%). Low: 1.32 in 2015; +12% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1998, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1964 and 1970: −0.09 → −0.25 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.708,"last":1.473,"trough":{"year":2015,"value":1.32},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1998,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":-0.0903,"slope_after":-0.245},{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.245,"slope_after":-0.034}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.23k in 1950 → 0.28k in 2023 (+22%). Low: 0.17k in 2002; +62% since then. The trend broke around 1993 and 2002: 0k → −0.01k → +0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.23,"last":0.28,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":0.173},"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.00126,"slope_after":-0.00978},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.00978,"slope_after":0.00511}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 4.74 → 2.96. Over the same years: births 0.22k → 0.21k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":4.737,"end":2.962,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":0.218,"end":0.205}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.64 → 1.47; births 0.26k → 0.28k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.64,"end":1.473,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.256,"end":0.28}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.13); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.71). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.13,"r_changes":0.712,"effective_pairs_changes":62,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.649,"actual":1.473,"gap_pct":-10.67}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-10.67,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.49 (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.473},"values":{"2050":1.485,"2100":1.555},"low_2100":1.055}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −1.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.283,"actual":0.28,"gap_pct":-1.06}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-1.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.29k (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.21k (−24% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.08k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.28},"values":{"2050":0.29,"2100":0.213},"low_2100":0.077}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BES&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}