{"locations":[{"code":"BEN","name":"Benin","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BEN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.75 in 1950 → 4.56 in 2023 (−21%). Peak: 7.06 in 1981; the latest value is 35% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1984: +0.06 → +0.02 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.751,"last":4.556,"peak":{"year":1981,"value":7.056},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0601,"slope_after":0.023},{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.023,"slope_after":-0.0611}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 92k in 1950 → 478k in 2023 (×5.2).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":92.03,"last":478.1}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 34% in 2024 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 6% → 20.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":33.9838,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":6,"end":20.501}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 9.8% in 1960 → 53.4% in 2025 (+44 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2021. The trend broke around 1987: change slowed down (+0.91 → +0.38 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":9.7896,"last":53.362,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.912,"slope_after":0.385}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,207 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,116 PPP dollars in 2025 (+87%). The trend broke around 2017: change sped up (+30 → +127 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2207.068,"last":4116.2152,"breaks":[{"year":2017,"slope_before":30.3,"slope_after":127}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 5.41 → 4.56. Over the same years: births 424k → 478k; internet 4.9% → 32.4%; urban share 44.7% → 51.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,893 PPP dollars → 3,721 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.41,"end":4.556,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":423.9,"end":478.1},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.9,"end":32.394},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":44.6503,"end":51.7458},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2893.0467,"end":3721.2125}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.73); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.33).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.735,"r_changes":0.326,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.877,"r_changes":-0.098,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.756,"r_changes":0.267,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.37). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.974,"r_changes":-0.371,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.829,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":32.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.42,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":14.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.038,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":25.79},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.411,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":15.16},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.411,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":15.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.581,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":10.88},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.692,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":8.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.498,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":12.93},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.502,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":12.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.867,"actual":5.0795,"gap_pct":4.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.818,"actual":4.556,"gap_pct":-5.44}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":12.93,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.56) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.556,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.56, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.556,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.06 (−33% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.14 (−53% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.64.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.556},"values":{"2050":3.057,"2100":2.137},"low_2100":1.637}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":302.631,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":50.36},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":354.026,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":28.53},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":318.204,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":43},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":411.119,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":10.68},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":415.212,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":9.59},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":391.312,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":16.29},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":388.453,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":17.14},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":399.932,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":13.78},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":402.271,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":13.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":413.113,"actual":455.04,"gap_pct":10.15},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":487.458,"actual":478.1,"gap_pct":-1.92}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":13.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection did not expect today's level (478k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":478.1,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (478k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":478.1,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 600k (+25% vs 2023), 2100 — 604k (+26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 310k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":478.1},"values":{"2050":599.5,"2100":604.1},"low_2100":310.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BEN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}