{"locations":[{"code":"BEL","name":"Belgium","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BEL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.35 in 1950 → 1.38 in 2023 (−41%). Peak: 2.70 in 1964; the latest value is 49% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1972, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1964 and 1978: +0.03 → −0.08 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.346,"last":1.379,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.702},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1972,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0285,"slope_after":-0.0756},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0756,"slope_after":0.00167}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 144k in 1950 → 102k in 2023 (−29%). Peak: 159k in 1964; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1976: +1.36k → −3.04k → −0.04k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":143.9,"last":101.7,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":159.4},"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":1.36,"slope_after":-3.04},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-3.04,"slope_after":-0.0387}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.8% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2004, above 90% since 2019. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 7.9% → 50%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.001,"last":95.7758,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":7.89,"end":49.97}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 65.9% in 1960 → 87.7% in 2025 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1981.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":65.868,"last":87.6726,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1981,"direction":"above"}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 41,640 PPP dollars in 1990 → 63,488 PPP dollars in 2025 (+52%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2014: +929 → +59 → +644 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":41640.0584,"last":63488.4218,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":929,"slope_after":59.3},{"year":2014,"slope_before":59.3,"slope_after":644}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 2.70 → 1.84. Over the same years: births 159k → 123k; urban share 67.5% → 72.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":2.702,"end":1.838,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":159.4,"end":123.1},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":67.4922,"end":72.2951},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.75 → 1.38; births 125k → 102k; internet 82.2% → 94.6%; urban share 85.7% → 87.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 56,263 PPP dollars → 63,042 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.748,"end":1.379,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":124.5,"end":101.7},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":82.1702,"end":94.6263},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":85.7415,"end":87.5515},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":56263.1753,"end":63042.01}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.981,"r_changes":0.939,"effective_pairs_changes":41,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.24); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.238,"r_changes":0.272,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.735,"r_changes":0.007,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.16); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29). Changes line up best with a 3 years shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.58).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.159,"r_changes":0.289,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-3,"r":0.58,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −9.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.735,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-5.78},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.525,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":7.19},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.701,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-3.9},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.701,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-3.9},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.671,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-2.17},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.844,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-11.35},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.871,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-12.63},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.871,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-12.63},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.831,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-10.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.799,"actual":1.6347,"gap_pct":-9.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.592,"actual":1.379,"gap_pct":-13.38}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-9.13,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.49 (+8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.55 (+13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.05.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.379},"values":{"2050":1.492,"2100":1.554},"low_2100":1.054}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −2.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":101.949,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":16.27},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":95.227,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":24.48},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":106.471,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":11.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":107.112,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":10.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":107.851,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":9.91},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":121.78,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":-2.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":122.658,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":-3.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":129.551,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":-8.5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":130.81,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":-9.38},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":130.467,"actual":118.54,"gap_pct":-9.14},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":116.823,"actual":101.7,"gap_pct":-12.95}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-2.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (102k) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":101.7,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 104k (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 90.9k (−11% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 37.2k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":101.7},"values":{"2050":104.2,"2100":90.88},"low_2100":37.24}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BEL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}