{"locations":[{"code":"BDI","name":"Burundi","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/BDI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.92 in 1950 → 4.88 in 2023 (−30%). Peak: 7.39 in 1989; the latest value is 34% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2007: +0.01 → −0.05 → −0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.923,"last":4.878,"peak":{"year":1989,"value":7.387},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.0136,"slope_after":-0.0464},{"year":2007,"slope_before":-0.0464,"slope_after":-0.109}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 117k in 1950 → 461k in 2023 (×3.9). The trend broke around 2002 and 2011: +3.71k → +17.8k → +0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":117.2,"last":460.9,"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":3.71,"slope_after":17.8},{"year":2011,"slope_before":17.8,"slope_after":0.0253}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 8.6% in 2024 (+8.6 pp). Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 1% → 6.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":8.596,"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":1.0424,"end":6.0722}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 1.8% in 1960 → 25.7% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 2004 and 2013: +0.16 → +0.43 → +1.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":1.8386,"last":25.687,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":0.165,"slope_after":0.432},{"year":2013,"slope_before":0.432,"slope_after":1.1}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,456 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,067 PPP dollars in 2025 (−27%). The trend broke around 1997 and 2005: −67 → −13 → +3.5 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1455.8262,"last":1066.513,"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-66.8,"slope_after":-13.2},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-13.2,"slope_after":3.47}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2009–2019: 6.41 → 5.27. Over the same years: births 416k → 448k; internet 0.9% → 6.1%; urban share 10.5% → 18.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 985 PPP dollars → 1,055 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":6.409,"end":5.271,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":416,"end":448.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":0.9,"end":6.0722},{"id":"urban_population","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":10.498,"end":18.7862},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":985.1848,"end":1054.7259}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.788,"r_changes":0.07,"effective_pairs_changes":73,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.893,"r_changes":0.044,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.941,"r_changes":-0.145,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.548,"r_changes":-0.039,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −2.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.06,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":33.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.63,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-3.53},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.583,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-2.72},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.262,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-13.27},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.262,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-13.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.585,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":51.49},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.527,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":53.98},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.636,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-3.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.658,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-4.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.577,"actual":5.431,"gap_pct":-2.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.878,"actual":4.878,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-2.72,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.88) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.878,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (4.88, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.878,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.96 (−39% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.06 (−58% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.56.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.878},"values":{"2050":2.959,"2100":2.06},"low_2100":1.56}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":328.451,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":36.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":420.864,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":6.65},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":427.192,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":5.07},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":506.831,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":-11.44},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":532.096,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":-15.64},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":302.63,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":48.32},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":290.438,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":54.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":492.706,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":-8.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":512.83,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":-12.47},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":459.527,"actual":448.86,"gap_pct":-2.32},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":443.059,"actual":460.9,"gap_pct":4.03}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":4.03,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (461k, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":460.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (461k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":460.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 578k (+25% vs 2023), 2100 — 551k (+19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 274k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":460.9},"values":{"2050":578.4,"2100":550.6},"low_2100":273.7}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=BDI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}