{"locations":[{"code":"AUS","name":"Australia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/AUS/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.06 in 1950 → 1.48 in 2024 (−52%). Peak: 3.54 in 1961; the latest value is 58% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1976, below 1.5 since 2024. The trend broke around 1961 and 1979: +0.04 → −0.09 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":3.063,"last":1.481,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":3.542},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1976,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0392,"slope_after":-0.0875},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0875,"slope_after":-0.0047}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 189k in 1950 → 290k in 2025 (+53%). The trend broke around 1972 and 1978: +3.12k → −5.56k → +1.84k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":188.8,"last":289.6,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":3.12,"slope_after":-5.56},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-5.56,"slope_after":1.84}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.6% in 1990 → 96.1% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2018. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 3.3% → 52.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.585,"last":96.1314,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":3.28,"end":52.6893}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 81.6% in 1960 → 87.7% in 2025 (+6.1 pp). The trend broke around 1973 and 1999: +0.35 → −0.04 → +0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":81.5939,"last":87.7193,"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.352,"slope_after":-0.0362},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.0362,"slope_after":0.106}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 36,268 PPP dollars in 1990 → 60,194 PPP dollars in 2025 (+66%). The trend broke around 2005: change slowed down (+1,213 → +527 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":36267.7411,"last":60194.0634,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":1210,"slope_after":527}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1971–1981: 2.95 → 1.94. Over the same years: births 280k → 235k; urban share 85.6% → 85.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":2.948,"end":1.94,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":279.9,"end":235.2},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":85.5579,"end":85.7072},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 1.81 → 1.48; births 300k → 292k; internet 84% → 96.1%; urban share 86.7% → 87.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 55,489 PPP dollars → 60,310 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.805,"end":1.481,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":300.3,"end":292.318},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":84,"end":96.1314},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":86.7221,"end":87.6021},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":55489.0688,"end":60309.5832}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.64); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.85). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":-0.636,"r_changes":0.851,"effective_pairs_changes":48,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 32 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.35); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.346,"r_changes":0.044,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.816,"r_changes":0.068,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.38); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.47).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.384,"r_changes":0.471,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −6.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-9.01},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.818,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-4.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.695,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":1.99},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.843,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-6.2},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-6.55},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-6.55},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.97,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-12.24},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.872,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-7.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.861,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-7.1},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.832,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-5.63},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.603,"actual":1.481,"gap_pct":-7.61}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.55,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.64 (+11% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.63 (+10% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.481},"values":{"2050":1.638,"2100":1.632},"low_2100":1.132}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap −0.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":272.427,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":9.87},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":276.499,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":8.25},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":259.237,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":15.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":290.079,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":3.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":284.236,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":5.31},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":287.571,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":4.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":335.192,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-10.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":324.289,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-7.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":324.655,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-7.8},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":317.978,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-5.87},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":316.494,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-5.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":304.069,"actual":289.6,"gap_pct":-4.76}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":-0.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 290k, 5% below the UN 2024 medium variant (304k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":304.3,"actual_births_k":289.6,"gap_pct":-4.8,"un_lower95_births_k":270.9,"below_lower95":false,"source":"ABS, National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 Sep 2026), Table 1 (310101.xlsx)","source_url":"https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 332k (+15% vs 2025), 2100 — 408k (+41% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 198k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":289.6},"values":{"2050":332.4,"2100":408.1},"low_2100":198.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=AUS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}