{"locations":[{"code":"ATG","name":"Antigua and Barbuda","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ATG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.12 in 1950 → 1.58 in 2023 (−69%). Low: 1.37 in 2018; +15% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2001. The trend broke around 1965 and 1980: −0.05 → −0.14 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.124,"last":1.578,"trough":{"year":2018,"value":1.371},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2001,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":-0.049,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.0176}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.66k in 1950 → 1.11k in 2023 (−33%). Peak: 2.03k in 1964; the latest value is 46% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 1973: +0.03k → −0.06k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.661,"last":1.106,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.032},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0285,"slope_after":-0.0635},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.0635,"slope_after":-0.00765}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 72.7% in 2024 (+73 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 42% → 67.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":72.7304,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":42,"end":67.78}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 39.6% in 1960 → 24.3% in 2025 (−15 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1990: −0.73 → +0.1 → −0.39 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":39.5658,"last":24.3335,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":-0.73,"slope_after":0.101},{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.101,"slope_after":-0.385}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 21,075 PPP dollars in 1990 → 30,620 PPP dollars in 2025 (+45%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +581 → −760 → +362 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":21074.5764,"last":30620.3076,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":581,"slope_after":-760},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-760,"slope_after":362}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 4.42 → 2.77. Over the same years: births 1.99k → 1.43k; urban share 36.4% → 33.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":4.416,"end":2.77,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":1.988,"end":1.425},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":36.4184,"end":33.9478},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.54 → 1.58; births 1.1k → 1.11k; internet 63.4% → 72.1%; urban share 25.2% → 24.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 25,207 PPP dollars → 28,712 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.536,"end":1.578,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.095,"end":1.106},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":63.4,"end":72.1241},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":25.2476,"end":24.45},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":25206.8458,"end":28712.397}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.93); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.932,"r_changes":0.939,"effective_pairs_changes":58,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.22). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.929,"r_changes":-0.22,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.70); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.7,"r_changes":-0.073,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.46); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.457,"r_changes":0.037,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.034,"actual":1.47,"gap_pct":-27.73},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.033,"actual":1.47,"gap_pct":-27.69},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.034,"actual":1.47,"gap_pct":-27.73},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.578,"actual":1.578,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-27.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.58 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.61 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.578},"values":{"2050":1.576,"2100":1.605},"low_2100":1.105}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.503,"actual":1.0546,"gap_pct":-29.83},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.501,"actual":1.0546,"gap_pct":-29.74},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.644,"actual":1.0546,"gap_pct":-35.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.116,"actual":1.106,"gap_pct":-0.9}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-29.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection did not expect today's level (1.11k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.106,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.11k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.106,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.82k (−26% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.52k (−53% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.106},"values":{"2050":0.821,"2100":0.521},"low_2100":0.163}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ATG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}