{"locations":[{"code":"ASM","name":"American Samoa","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ASM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.22 in 1950 → 2.29 in 2023 (−63%). Peak: 6.78 in 1964; the latest value is 66% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1974: +0.05 → −0.18 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.219,"last":2.286,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":6.78},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0523,"slope_after":-0.183},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.183,"slope_after":-0.0546}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.85k in 1950 → 0.73k in 2023 (−13%). Peak: 1.89k in 1993; the latest value is 61% lower. The trend broke around 1982 and 1993: +0.01k → +0.07k → −0.04k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.845,"last":0.731,"peak":{"year":1993,"value":1.894},"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.00907,"slope_after":0.0747},{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.0747,"slope_after":-0.0398}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990; no earlier data in this period.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1990,"first":0,"last":0}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 37.6% in 1960 → 80.5% in 2025 (+43 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1968, above 75% since 1990. The trend broke around 2001: direction reversed (+1.2 → −0.36 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":37.6307,"last":80.5124,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1968,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1990,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":1.17,"slope_after":-0.362}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 6.73 → 5.01. Over the same years: births 0.98k → 0.99k; urban share 45% → 59.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":6.73,"end":5.013,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":0.975,"end":0.993},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":45.0237,"end":59.2445}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.93 → 2.29; births 1.12k → 0.73k; urban share 85.4% → 81.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.932,"end":2.286,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.12,"end":0.731},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":85.3846,"end":81.3722}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.29); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.52). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.292,"r_changes":0.516,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.886,"r_changes":0.052,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +2.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.233,"actual":2.286,"gap_pct":2.37}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":2.37,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.90 (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−24% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.286},"values":{"2050":1.902,"2100":1.739},"low_2100":1.239}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.74,"actual":0.731,"gap_pct":-1.22}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-1.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.73k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.731,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.51k (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.31k (−58% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.11k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.731},"values":{"2050":0.512,"2100":0.305},"low_2100":0.105}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ASM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}