{"locations":[{"code":"ARM","name":"Armenia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ARM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.90 in 1950 → 1.71 in 2023 (−65%). Low: 1.40 in 2001; +22% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1994. The trend broke around 1976 and 2005: −0.09 → −0.05 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.904,"last":1.714,"trough":{"year":2001,"value":1.402},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1994,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.09,"slope_after":-0.0497},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.0497,"slope_after":0.00995}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 47.7k in 1950 → 34.7k in 2023 (−27%). Peak: 88k in 1985; the latest value is 61% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1997: +0.74k → −6.27k → −0.08k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":47.68,"last":34.67,"peak":{"year":1985,"value":87.99},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.743,"slope_after":-6.27},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-6.27,"slope_after":-0.0756}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 81.3% in 2024 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 15.3% → 54.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":81.3393,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":15.3,"end":54.6228}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 51.2% in 1960 → 65.9% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1982 and 2009: +0.73 → −0.16 → +0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":51.1513,"last":65.9287,"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.727,"slope_after":-0.157},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-0.157,"slope_after":0.112}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,138 PPP dollars in 1990 → 21,153 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.4). Low: 2,959 PPP dollars in 1993; ×7.1 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2019: −319 → +535 → +893 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6137.6005,"last":21153.4783,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":2958.8804},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-319,"slope_after":535},{"year":2019,"slope_before":535,"slope_after":893}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1960–1970: 4.79 → 3.33. Over the same years: births 76.8k → 57.7k; urban share 51.2% → 59.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":4.787,"end":3.328,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":76.78,"end":57.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":51.1513,"end":59.8699},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.67 → 1.71; births 45.1k → 34.7k; internet 41.9% → 80%; urban share 64.4% → 65.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,194 PPP dollars → 19,403 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.669,"end":1.714,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.14,"end":34.67},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":41.9,"end":79.9966},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.3584,"end":65.6957},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12194.019,"end":19402.7511}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.49); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.70). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.489,"r_changes":0.7,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.15); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.149,"r_changes":0.103,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.751,"r_changes":0.111,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.41); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.412,"r_changes":0.087,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +5.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.875,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":-14.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.229,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":29.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.24,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":28.61},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.482,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":7.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.463,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":9.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.834,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":-13.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.735,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":-8.08},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.744,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":-8.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.507,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":5.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.601,"actual":1.5948,"gap_pct":-0.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.579,"actual":1.714,"gap_pct":8.55}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":5.83,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (1.71, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.714,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected today's level (1.71, 2023) only around 2043: reality is 20 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.714,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2043,"years":20,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.69 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.714},"values":{"2050":1.687,"2100":1.668},"low_2100":1.168}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +1.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.615,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":-25.32},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":35.121,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":7.62},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":27.715,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":36.38},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":35.505,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":6.46},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":35.054,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":7.83},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.165,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":-14.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.767,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":-9.51},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.381,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":1.11},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":38.195,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":-1.04},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.707,"actual":37.797,"gap_pct":0.24},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":31.64,"actual":34.67,"gap_pct":9.58}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":1.11,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (34.7k) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":34.67,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (34.7k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":34.67,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 24.1k (−31% vs 2023), 2100 — 13.7k (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4.23k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":34.67},"values":{"2050":24.07,"2100":13.71},"low_2100":4.233}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ARM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}