{"locations":[{"code":"ARE","name":"United Arab Emirates","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ARE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.50 in 1950 → 1.20 in 2023 (−82%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2006, below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1976 and 2008: 0 → −0.15 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.503,"last":1.2,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2006,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.00135,"slope_after":-0.153},{"year":2008,"slope_before":-0.153,"slope_after":-0.0273}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.4k in 1950 → 104k in 2023 (×31). The trend broke around 1968: change sped up (+0.23k → +1.61k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.395,"last":104,"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.229,"slope_after":1.61}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 100% in 2024 (+100 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2006, above 90% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2004–2009: 30.1% → 64%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":100,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2004,"to":2009,"start":30.1313,"end":64}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 73.5% in 1960 → 86% in 2025 (+12 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1962. The trend broke around 1974 and 1991: +0.71 → −0.37 → +0.27 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":73.5,"last":85.9618,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1962,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.706,"slope_after":-0.37},{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.37,"slope_after":0.267}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 111,377 PPP dollars in 1990 → 69,702 PPP dollars in 2024 (−37%). The trend broke around 2005 and 2011: −1,208 → −2,728 → −254 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":111376.9844,"last":69701.7858,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":-1210,"slope_after":-2730},{"year":2011,"slope_before":-2730,"slope_after":-254}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 4.88 → 2.83. Over the same years: births 42.5k → 45.7k; internet 3.3% (1997); urban share 79.2% → 78.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 103,392 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":4.883,"end":2.825,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":42.45,"end":45.66},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":3.3},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":79.1618,"end":78.3821},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":103392.3795}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.53 → 1.20; births 92.6k → 104k; internet 88% → 100%; urban share 84% → 85.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 74,237 PPP dollars → 70,240 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.527,"end":1.2,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":92.56,"end":104},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":88,"end":100},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":83.9558,"end":85.6681},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":74237.2038,"end":70239.8328}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.49).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.965,"r_changes":0.491,"effective_pairs_changes":62,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.933,"r_changes":-0.079,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.53); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.41).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.526,"r_changes":0.406,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.933,"r_changes":-0.149,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-37.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-37.1},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.19,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-39.68},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.146,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-38.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.105,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-37.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-28.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.597,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-17.29},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.728,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-23.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.728,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-23.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.725,"actual":1.3209,"gap_pct":-23.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.437,"actual":1.2,"gap_pct":-16.49}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-28.6,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.20, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.2,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (1.20, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.2,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.33 (+11% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.46 (+22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.96.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.2},"values":{"2050":1.327,"2100":1.459},"low_2100":0.959}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":45.455,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":112.59},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.829,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":115.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.829,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":86.45},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":80.221,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":20.46},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":70.918,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":36.26},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":62.5,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":54.62},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":90.074,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":7.28},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":112.209,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":-13.88},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":95.227,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":1.48},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":87.377,"actual":96.635,"gap_pct":10.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":91.828,"actual":104,"gap_pct":13.26}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":20.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (104k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":104,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (104k, 2023) only around 2044: reality is 21 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":104,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2044,"years":21,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 177k (+70% vs 2023), 2100 — 324k (×3.1 vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 165k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":104},"values":{"2050":177.1,"2100":324.2},"low_2100":165.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ARE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}