{"locations":[{"code":"AND","name":"Andorra","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/AND/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.11 in 1950 → 1.08 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 2.91 in 1972; the latest value is 63% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1977, below 1.5 since 1984. The trend broke around 1972 and 1982: +0.03 → −0.14 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.112,"last":1.081,"peak":{"year":1972,"value":2.905},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1977,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1984,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.0328,"slope_after":-0.141},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.141,"slope_after":-0.0104}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.09k in 1950 → 0.56k in 2023 (×6). Peak: 0.87k in 2008; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 1995 and 2009: +0.02k → 0k → −0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.092,"last":0.555,"peak":{"year":2008,"value":0.873},"breaks":[{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.0165,"slope_after":0.00227},{"year":2009,"slope_before":0.00227,"slope_after":-0.0243}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2007, above 90% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 11.3% → 70.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":94.3976,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":11.2605,"end":70.87}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 58.5% in 1960 → 88.9% in 2025 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1969. The trend broke around 1981: direction reversed (+1.8 → −0.25 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":58.45,"last":88.9493,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":1.78,"slope_after":-0.25}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 50,036 PPP dollars in 1990 → 67,993 PPP dollars in 2025 (+36%). Low: 42,606 PPP dollars in 1993; +60% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: −460 → +2,853 → +45 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":50036.3008,"last":67993.0524,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":42605.6596},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-460,"slope_after":2850},{"year":2002,"slope_before":2850,"slope_after":45.5}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1974–1984: 2.74 → 1.48. Over the same years: births 0.51k → 0.55k; urban share 84.9% → 95.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":2.735,"end":1.475,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":0.514,"end":0.547},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":84.8991,"end":95.2899},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.14 → 1.08; births 0.68k → 0.56k; internet 84.4% → 94.2%; urban share 88.6% → 88.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 57,332 PPP dollars → 64,631 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.143,"end":1.081,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.679,"end":0.555},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":84.4,"end":94.215},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":88.5809,"end":88.8202},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57332.1586,"end":64631.2964}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.41).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.752,"r_changes":0.411,"effective_pairs_changes":55,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.754,"r_changes":-0.08,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.745,"r_changes":-0.025,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.65); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.653,"r_changes":0.208,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −5.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.145,"actual":1.081,"gap_pct":-5.59}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-5.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.25 (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.41 (+31% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.91.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.081},"values":{"2050":1.248,"2100":1.411},"low_2100":0.911}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.569,"actual":0.555,"gap_pct":-2.46}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-2.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.44k (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.28k (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.08k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.555},"values":{"2050":0.439,"2100":0.279},"low_2100":0.083}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=AND&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}