{"locations":[{"code":"AIA","name":"Anguilla","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/AIA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.49 in 1950 → 1.36 in 2023 (−79%). Peak: 7.09 in 1957; the latest value is 81% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1992, below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1961 and 1986: +0.03 → −0.19 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.491,"last":1.364,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":7.088},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1992,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0343,"slope_after":-0.194},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.194,"slope_after":-0.0271}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.26k in 1950 → 0.13k in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 0.28k in 1953; the latest value is 54% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 2001: 0k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.255,"last":0.13,"peak":{"year":1953,"value":0.282},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.00389,"slope_after":0.00105},{"year":2001,"slope_before":0.00105,"slope_after":-0.00135}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 6.15 → 3.75. Over the same years: births 0.23k → 0.17k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":6.152,"end":3.749,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":0.234,"end":0.174}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.55 → 1.36; births 0.14k → 0.13k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.553,"end":1.364,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.143,"end":0.13}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.939,"r_changes":0.541,"effective_pairs_changes":64,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +7.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.274,"actual":1.364,"gap_pct":7.06}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":7.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.50 (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.00.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.364},"values":{"2050":1.411,"2100":1.504},"low_2100":1.004}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.145,"actual":0.13,"gap_pct":-10.34}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-10.34,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.1k (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.06k (−52% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.02k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.13},"values":{"2050":0.102,"2100":0.062},"low_2100":0.017}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=AIA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}