{"locations":[{"code":"AFG","name":"Afghanistan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/AFG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.25 in 1950 → 4.84 in 2023 (−33%). Peak: 7.77 in 1994; the latest value is 38% lower. The trend broke around 1999: direction reversed (+0.01 → −0.15 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.248,"last":4.84,"peak":{"year":1994,"value":7.767},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.0112,"slope_after":-0.151}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 384k in 1950 → 1.47M in 2023 (×3.8). The trend broke around 1978 and 1984: +11.9k → −20.7k → +24.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":384,"last":1469,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":11.9,"slope_after":-20.7},{"year":1984,"slope_before":-20.7,"slope_after":24.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 16.1% in 2024 (+16 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2013–2018: 5.9% → 16.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":16.095,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2013,"to":2018,"start":5.9,"end":16.8}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 8.1% in 1960 → 25.9% in 2025 (+18 pp). The trend broke around 1981 and 2000: +0.4 → +0.13 → +0.33 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":8.1226,"last":25.9402,"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.4,"slope_after":0.134},{"year":2000,"slope_before":0.134,"slope_after":0.333}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,618 PPP dollars in 2000 → 1,964 PPP dollars in 2024 (+21%). Peak: 3,047 PPP dollars in 2013; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 2012 and 2018: +128 → +12 → −200 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2000,"to":2024,"first":1617.8265,"last":1964.4523,"peak":{"year":2013,"value":3046.5799},"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":128,"slope_after":11.6},{"year":2018,"slope_before":11.6,"slope_after":-200}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2000–2010: 7.57 → 6.20. Over the same years: births 1.04M → 1.18M; internet 0% → 4%; urban share 18.6% → 22.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,618 PPP dollars → 2,849 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2000,"to":2010,"start":7.566,"end":6.195,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2000,"to":2010,"start":1037,"end":1181},{"id":"internet_users","from":2001,"to":2010,"start":0.0047,"end":4},{"id":"urban_population","from":2000,"to":2010,"start":18.5582,"end":22.2615},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2000,"to":2010,"start":1617.8265,"end":2848.5861}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 5.88 → 4.84; births 1.27M → 1.47M; internet 5.9% → 15.9%; urban share 23.8% → 25.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,047 PPP dollars → 1,984 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.88,"end":4.84,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1274,"end":1469},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.9,"end":15.9284},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":23.8077,"end":25.4731},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3046.5799,"end":1983.8126}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.792,"r_changes":0.226,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":-0.933,"r_changes":0.046,"effective_pairs_changes":8,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.743,"r_changes":-0.365,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2000–2023, 24 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.61); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2000,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":-0.614,"r_changes":0.137,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.5,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":19.73},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.7,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":-5.48},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.647,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":-4.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.241,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":-13.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.241,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":-13.67},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.845,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":-7.82},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.347,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":0.76},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.037,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":33.46},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.245,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":26.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.412,"actual":5.3877,"gap_pct":22.11},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.407,"actual":4.84,"gap_pct":9.83}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.84) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.84,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (4.84) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.84,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.09 (−36% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.06 (−57% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.56.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.84},"values":{"2050":3.092,"2100":2.061},"low_2100":1.561}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1295.857,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":6.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1534.69,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":-10.41},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1527.135,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":-9.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2000.666,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":-31.27},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1725.893,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":-20.33},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1600.469,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":-14.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1562.479,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":-12},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1025.414,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":34.09},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1086.419,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":26.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1157.962,"actual":1375,"gap_pct":18.74},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1459.505,"actual":1469,"gap_pct":0.65}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-9.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.47M) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1469,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.47M, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1469,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.81M (+23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.81M (+23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 962k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1469},"values":{"2050":1811,"2100":1813},"low_2100":961.5}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=AFG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}