{"locations":[{"code":"ABW","name":"Aruba","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ABW/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.83 in 1950 → 1.60 in 2023 (−73%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1998. The trend broke around 1974: change slowed down (−0.15 → −0.02 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.827,"last":1.602,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1998,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.147,"slope_after":-0.016}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.78k in 1950 → 1.02k in 2023 (−43%). The trend broke around 1964 and 1972: −0.01k → −0.05k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.777,"last":1.02,"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":-0.00854,"slope_after":-0.0478},{"year":1972,"slope_before":-0.0478,"slope_after":-0.00368}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 97.2% in 2017 (+97 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2008, above 90% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 30.9% → 74%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":97.17,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":30.9,"end":74}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 59% in 1960 → 61.7% in 2025 (+2.7 pp). The trend broke around 1978 and 2004: +0.43 → −0.03 → −0.18 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.0237,"last":61.7485,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.428,"slope_after":-0.0315},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.0315,"slope_after":-0.178}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 33,147 PPP dollars in 1990 → 45,428 PPP dollars in 2024 (+37%). Low: 30,409 PPP dollars in 2020; +49% since then. The trend broke around 2006 and 2012: +397 → −933 → +592 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":33146.6705,"last":45428.0027,"trough":{"year":2020,"value":30408.8271},"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":397,"slope_after":-933},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-933,"slope_after":592}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1960–1970: 4.57 → 2.97. Over the same years: births 1.76k → 1.41k; urban share 59% → 62.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":4.567,"end":2.973,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":1.76,"end":1.412},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":59.0237,"end":62.4135},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.94 → 1.60; births 1.26k → 1.02k; internet 78.9% (2013); urban share 63.6% → 61.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 35,712 PPP dollars → 42,783 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.944,"end":1.602,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.264,"end":1.02},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":78.9},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":63.6383,"end":61.8351},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35711.9291,"end":42783.2489}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.56). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.969,"r_changes":0.559,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 21 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.32); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":21,"r_levels":-0.32,"r_changes":-0.034,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.675,"r_changes":-0.479,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.50); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.498,"r_changes":0.009,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in 4; median gap +6.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.7695,"gap_pct":-6.87},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.798,"actual":1.7695,"gap_pct":-1.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.632,"actual":1.7695,"gap_pct":8.43},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.66,"actual":1.7695,"gap_pct":6.6},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.624,"actual":1.7695,"gap_pct":8.96},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.796,"actual":1.7695,"gap_pct":-1.48},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.185,"actual":1.602,"gap_pct":35.19}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":6.6,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.62 (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.64 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.14.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.602},"values":{"2050":1.619,"2100":1.641},"low_2100":1.141}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in 3; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.182,"actual":1.163,"gap_pct":-1.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.266,"actual":1.163,"gap_pct":-8.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.206,"actual":1.163,"gap_pct":-3.57},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.077,"actual":1.163,"gap_pct":7.99},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.049,"actual":1.163,"gap_pct":10.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.163,"actual":1.163,"gap_pct":0},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.765,"actual":1.02,"gap_pct":33.33}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection did not expect today's level (1.02k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.02,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (1.02k, 2023) only around 2064: reality is 41 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.02,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2064,"years":41,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.91k (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.62k (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.21k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.02},"values":{"2050":0.91,"2100":0.624},"low_2100":0.212}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ABW&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}