{"locations":[{"code":"un-900","name":"World","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/WLD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.85 in 1950 → 2.25 in 2023 (−54%). Peak: 5.31 in 1963; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1993: +0.01 → −0.07 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.852,"last":2.251,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":5.308},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00829,"slope_after":-0.0745},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0745,"slope_after":-0.02}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 15.6% in 2005 → 73.6% in 2025 (+58 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 46.3% → 67%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":2005,"to":2025,"first":15.6,"last":73.6,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":46.3,"end":67}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.57 → 2.25; internet 35.3% → 69.2%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.572,"end":2.251,"others":[{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.3,"end":69.2}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (2005–2023, 19 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.47).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":2005,"to":2023,"years":19,"r_levels":-0.963,"r_changes":-0.475,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.292,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":7.36},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.435,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":1.06},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.411,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":2.06},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3.22},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.372,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3.74},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.397,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":2.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.389,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.45,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":0.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.472,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":-0.46},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.474,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":-0.54},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.312,"actual":2.251,"gap_pct":-2.64}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":2.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.25) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.251,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (2.25, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.251,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.10 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.36.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.251},"values":{"2050":2.097,"2100":1.838},"low_2100":1.364}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=WLD&i=tfr,internet_users&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}