{"id":"jpn_births","title":"Япония: рождения — пять поколений официальных прогнозов","note":"IPSS, средние варианты 2002–2023 против факта (все рождения в Японии, включая иностранцев). Прогноз 2006 года долго был ниже факта; с 2022 года реальность ниже всех прогнозов.","location":"JPN","metric":"births","unit":"thousand births per year","actual":{"label":"Факт (Минздрав Японии)","source_url":"https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/tokusyu/gaikoku26/xls/zuhyou_r08.xlsx","columns":["year","value"],"points":[[2000,1202.761],[2001,1182.499],[2002,1165.466],[2003,1134.767],[2004,1122.344],[2005,1073.915],[2006,1104.862],[2007,1103.247],[2008,1105.232],[2009,1082.385],[2010,1083.616],[2011,1062.225],[2012,1050.716],[2013,1042.814],[2014,1018.606],[2015,1020.036],[2016,994.285],[2017,962.816],[2018,935.287],[2019,883.566],[2020,859.632],[2021,830.057],[2022,787.633],[2023,747.002],[2024,709.051]]},"checks":[{"projection":"IPSS 2002, средний","published":2002,"comparison_year":2024,"expected":871.129,"actual":709.051,"gap_pct":-18.6,"latest_actual_year":2024,"latest_actual":709.051,"year_projection_expected_latest_actual":2045,"years_ahead":21,"projection_last_year":2045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","explanation":"IPSS 2002, средний: на 2024 ждали 871 тыс., вышло 709 тыс. (-18,6%). Сегодняшний уровень этот прогноз ждал только в 2045 году — на 21 год позже."},{"projection":"IPSS 2006, средний","published":2006,"comparison_year":2024,"expected":738.569,"actual":709.051,"gap_pct":-4,"latest_actual_year":2024,"latest_actual":709.051,"year_projection_expected_latest_actual":2029,"years_ahead":5,"projection_last_year":2045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","explanation":"IPSS 2006, средний: на 2024 ждали 739 тыс., вышло 709 тыс. (-4%). Сегодняшний уровень этот прогноз ждал только в 2029 году — на 5 лет позже."},{"projection":"IPSS 2012, средний","published":2012,"comparison_year":2024,"expected":787.838,"actual":709.051,"gap_pct":-10,"latest_actual_year":2024,"latest_actual":709.051,"year_projection_expected_latest_actual":2036,"years_ahead":12,"projection_last_year":2045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","explanation":"IPSS 2012, средний: на 2024 ждали 788 тыс., вышло 709 тыс. (-10%). Сегодняшний уровень этот прогноз ждал только в 2036 году — на 12 лет позже."},{"projection":"IPSS 2017, средний","published":2017,"comparison_year":2024,"expected":851.041,"actual":709.051,"gap_pct":-16.7,"latest_actual_year":2024,"latest_actual":709.051,"year_projection_expected_latest_actual":2044,"years_ahead":20,"projection_last_year":2045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","explanation":"IPSS 2017, средний: на 2024 ждали 851 тыс., вышло 709 тыс. (-16,7%). Сегодняшний уровень этот прогноз ждал только в 2044 году — на 20 лет позже."},{"projection":"IPSS 2023, средний","published":2023,"comparison_year":2024,"expected":779.436,"actual":709.051,"gap_pct":-9,"latest_actual_year":2024,"latest_actual":709.051,"year_projection_expected_latest_actual":2042,"years_ahead":18,"projection_last_year":2045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","explanation":"IPSS 2023, средний: на 2024 ждали 779 тыс., вышло 709 тыс. (-9%). Сегодняшний уровень этот прогноз ждал только в 2042 году — на 18 лет позже."}],"projections":[{"label":"IPSS 2002, средний","published":2002,"source_url":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2002/db_zenkoku2002/s_tables/pp2002_chu_T1_1_7.xls","columns":["year","value"],"points":[[2001,1194.051],[2002,1182.816],[2003,1169.511],[2004,1154.213],[2005,1136.984],[2006,1119.141],[2007,1101.806],[2008,1085.263],[2009,1069.494],[2010,1054.862],[2011,1040.727],[2012,1026.805],[2013,1012.799],[2014,998.908],[2015,984.819],[2016,970.576],[2017,955.856],[2018,941.249],[2019,927.53],[2020,914.127],[2021,901.624],[2022,890.585],[2023,880.379],[2024,871.129],[2025,862.709],[2026,854.712],[2027,847.3],[2028,840.421],[2029,833.895],[2030,827.544],[2031,821.219],[2032,814.765],[2033,808.035],[2034,801.022],[2035,793.706],[2036,786.053],[2037,778.084],[2038,769.837],[2039,761.353],[2040,752.689],[2041,743.899],[2042,735.024],[2043,726.111],[2044,717.204],[2045,708.344]]},{"label":"IPSS 2006, средний","published":2006,"source_url":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/suikei07/houkoku/kekka-1/1-8.xls","columns":["year","value"],"points":[[2006,1089.87],[2007,1022.168],[2008,986.916],[2009,959.95],[2010,934.629],[2011,911.13],[2012,889.574],[2013,869.963],[2014,852.201],[2015,836.11],[2016,821.43],[2017,807.861],[2018,795.266],[2019,783.674],[2020,773.023],[2021,763.265],[2022,754.355],[2023,746.167],[2024,738.569],[2025,731.42],[2026,724.534],[2027,717.682],[2028,710.647],[2029,703.259],[2030,695.367],[2031,686.818],[2032,677.494],[2033,667.371],[2034,656.491],[2035,644.942],[2036,632.851],[2037,620.369],[2038,607.674],[2039,594.946],[2040,582.357],[2041,570.068],[2042,558.216],[2043,546.91],[2044,536.214],[2045,526.157]]},{"label":"IPSS 2012, средний","published":2012,"source_url":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/newest04/s-kekka/1-8.xls","columns":["year","value"],"points":[[2011,1059.245],[2012,1017.985],[2013,1007.044],[2014,980.195],[2015,952.29],[2016,924.83],[2017,898.964],[2018,875.362],[2019,854.404],[2020,836.262],[2021,820.777],[2022,807.705],[2023,796.832],[2024,787.838],[2025,780.283],[2026,773.672],[2027,767.503],[2028,761.41],[2029,755.207],[2030,748.805],[2031,742.14],[2032,735.143],[2033,727.787],[2034,720.093],[2035,712.086],[2036,703.76],[2037,695.092],[2038,686.06],[2039,676.633],[2040,666.787],[2041,656.518],[2042,645.857],[2043,634.871],[2044,623.649],[2045,612.272]]},{"label":"IPSS 2017, средний","published":2017,"source_url":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2017/db_zenkoku2017/s_tables/1-8.xls","columns":["year","value"],"points":[[2016,992.239],[2017,967.757],[2018,943.784],[2019,920.614],[2020,902.281],[2021,885.753],[2022,871.62],[2023,860.091],[2024,851.041],[2025,844.063],[2026,838.48],[2027,833.582],[2028,828.786],[2029,823.643],[2030,817.89],[2031,811.483],[2032,804.516],[2033,797.138],[2034,789.507],[2035,781.763],[2036,773.982],[2037,766.168],[2038,758.29],[2039,750.307],[2040,742.17],[2041,733.87],[2042,725.432],[2043,716.881],[2044,708.244],[2045,699.528]]},{"label":"IPSS 2023, средний","published":2023,"source_url":"https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2023/db_zenkoku2023/s_tables/1-8.xlsx","columns":["year","value"],"points":[[2021,831.001],[2022,787.253],[2023,761.895],[2024,779.436],[2025,774.274],[2026,771.044],[2027,771.599],[2028,773.292],[2029,774.06],[2030,773.92],[2031,772.722],[2032,770.288],[2033,766.105],[2034,761.032],[2035,755.152],[2036,748.552],[2037,741.455],[2038,733.985],[2039,726.214],[2040,718.174],[2041,709.836],[2042,701.158],[2043,692.082],[2044,682.539],[2045,672.476]]}],"how_to_read":"gap_pct — насколько факт отличается от прогноза в comparison_year (минус: факт ниже). year_projection_expected_latest_actual — год, в котором прогноз ждал последнего фактического уровня; years_ahead — на сколько лет раньше это случилось."}